New Delhi: The Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress are likely to ally in the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections 2024 in Delhi, the sources said on Thursday. The AAP will field candidates on four seats in the capital city while leaving three seats for the 'Grand Old Party' as per the agreement reached between both the partners of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or I.N.D.I.A bloc. The sources added that both of them may contest elections together in Gujarat and Haryana. Meanwhile, both parties are contesting against each other in Punjab.
However, a close forensic analysis of the last Lok Sabha elections has revealed that the alliance between the AAP and the Congress is not likely to dent the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as much as the vote share of the saffron party was 56.86 per cent in Delhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections if we compare the combined vote share of 40.83 per cent of the AAP and the Congress. The BJP was well ahead of both the parties in all seven constituencies of Delhi. The BJP gained more than 10 per cent of the votes in 2019 compared to its performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. The AAP saw a massive decline of close to 15 per cent of vote share in the 2019 polls whereas the Congress party registered a jump of almost 8 per cent in its vote share.
Both parties of the I.N.D.I.A bloc must replicate their performance of the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections when they jointly led the BJP in at least six parliamentary seats except the West Delhi constituency. The BJP received 46.63 per cent of the vote share in the entire Delhi in 2014 and won all seven seats riding on the massive 'Modi Wave'.
What happened in Lok Sabha Elections 2019?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) garnered 49,08,541 votes (56.86%) in Delhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. The Congress got 19,53,900 votes (22.63%) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) received 15,71,687 votes (18.20%) in the capital city. The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was 35,25,587 votes (40.83%) during the 2019 polls in Delhi which was 13,82,954 votes less than the BJP. The saffron party received more than 60 per cent of the votes in North West Delhi (60.49%) and West Delhi (60.01%). The party also managed to get more than 50 per cent of the votes in the remaining five seats of South Delhi (56.57%), East Delhi (55.33%), New Delhi (54.77%), North East Delhi (53.86%) and Chandni Chowk (52.92%).
Seat-wise analysis of Delhi in Lok Sabha Elections 2019
1. North West Delhi - BJP's Hans Raj Hans received 8,48,663 votes (60.49%) and defeated AAP candidate Gugan Singh by a massive margin of 5,53,897 votes. Singh received 2,94,766 votes with a vote share of 21.01%. Congress candidate Rajesh Lilothia managed to get 2,36,882 votes with a vote share of 16.88%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 3,17,015 votes (BJP: 8,48,663 votes and AAP+Congress: 5,31,648 votes).
2. West Delhi - BJP's Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma received 8,65,648 votes (60.01%) and defeated Congress candidate Mahabal Mishra by a huge margin of 5,78,486 votes. Mishra received 2,87,162 votes with a vote share of 19.91%. AAP candidate Balbir Singh Jakhar managed to get 2,51,873 votes with a vote share of 17.46%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 3,26,613 votes (BJP: 8,65,648 votes and AAP+Congress: 5,39,035 votes).
3. South Delhi - BJP's Ramesh Bidhuri received 6,87,014 votes (56.57%) and defeated AAP candidate Raghav Chadha by a margin of 3,67,043 votes. Chadha received 3,19,971 votes with a vote share of 26.34%. Congress candidate and boxer Vijender Singh managed to get 1,64,613 votes with a vote share of 13.55%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 2,02,430 votes (BJP: 6,87,014 votes and AAP+Congress: 4,84,584 votes).
4. East Delhi - BJP's Gautam Gambhir received 6,96,156 votes (55.33%) and defeated Congress candidate Arvinder Singh Lovely by a margin of 3,91,222 votes. Lovely received 3,04,934 votes with a vote share of 24.24%. AAP candidate Atishi managed to get 2,19,328 votes with a vote share of 17.43%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 1,71,894 votes (BJP: 6,96,156 votes and AAP+Congress: 5,24,262 votes).
5. New Delhi - BJP's Meenakshi Lekhi received 5,04,206 votes (54.77%) and defeated Congress candidate Ajay Makan by a margin of 2,56,504 votes. Makan received 2,47,702 votes with a vote share of 26.91%. AAP candidate Brijesh Goyal managed to get 1,50,342 votes with a vote share of 16.33%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 1,06,162 votes (BJP: 5,04,206 votes and AAP+Congress: 3,98,044 votes).
6. North East Delhi - BJP's Manoj Tiwari received 7,87,799 votes (53.86%) and defeated Congress candidate and former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit by a margin of 3,66,102 votes. Dikshit received 4,21,697 votes with a vote share of 28.83%. AAP candidate Dilip Pandey managed to get 1,90,856 votes with a vote share of 13.05%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 1,75,246 votes (BJP: 7,87,799 votes and AAP+Congress: 6,12,553 votes).
7. Chandni Chowk - BJP's Dr Harsh Vardhan received 5,19,055 votes (52.92%) and defeated Congress candidate Jai Prakash Agarwal by a margin of 2,28,145 votes. Agarwal received 2,90,910 votes with a vote share of 29.66%. AAP candidate Pankaj Kumar Gupta managed to get 1,44,551 votes with a vote share of 14.74%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 83,594 votes (BJP: 5,19,055 votes and AAP+Congress: 4,35,461 votes).
What happened in Lok Sabha Elections 2014?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received 38,38,850 votes (46.63%) in Delhi in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. The AAP got 27,22,887 votes (33.08%) and the Congress received 12,53,078 votes (15.22%) in the capital. The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was 39,75,965 votes (48.30%) during the 2014 polls in Delhi which was just 1,37,115 votes more than the BJP. The AAP and the Congress were leading together in North West Delhi, South Delhi, East Delhi, New Delhi, North East Delhi and Chandni Chowk while the BJP was ahead in West Delhi. The BJP, however, won all seven seats as there was no alliance between the AAP and the Congress.
Seat-wise analysis of Delhi in Lok Sabha Elections 2014
1. North West Delhi - BJP's Udit Raj received 6,29,860 votes (46.44%) and defeated AAP candidate Rakhi Birla by a margin of 1,06,802 votes. Birla received 5,23,058 votes with a vote share of 38.56%. Congress candidate Krishna Tirath managed to get 1,57,468 votes with a vote share of 11.61%. Outcome: The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was ahead of the BJP by 50,666 votes (BJP: 6,29,860 votes and AAP+Congress: 6,80,526 votes).
2. West Delhi - BJP's Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma received 6,51,395 votes (48.30%) and defeated AAP candidate Jarnail Singh by a margin of 2,68,586 votes. Jarnail Singh received 3,82,809 votes with a vote share of 28.38%. Congress candidate Mahabal Mishra managed to get 1,93,266 votes with a vote share of 14.33%. Outcome: The BJP was ahead of the combined strength of the AAP and the Congress by 75,320 votes (BJP: 6,51,395 votes and AAP+Congress: 5,76,075 votes).
3. South Delhi - BJP's Ramesh Bidhuri received 4,97,980 votes (45.15%) and defeated AAP candidate Col Devinder Sehrawat by a margin of 1,07,000 votes. Sehrawat received 3,90,980 votes with a vote share of 35.45%. Congress candidate Ramesh Kumar managed to get 1,25,213 votes with a vote share of 11.35%. Outcome: The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was ahead of the BJP by just 18,213 votes (BJP: 4,97,980 votes and AAP+Congress: 5,16,193 votes).
4. East Delhi - BJP's Maheish Girri received 5,72,202 votes (47.81%) and defeated AAP candidate Rajmohan Gandhi by a margin of 1,90,463 votes. Gandhi received 3,81,739 votes with a vote share of 31.90%. Congress candidate Sandeep Dikshit managed to get 2,03,240 votes with a vote share of 16.98%. Outcome: The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was ahead of the BJP by just 12,777 votes (BJP: 5,72,202 votes and AAP+Congress: 5,84,979 votes).
5. New Delhi - BJP's Meenakshi Lekhi received 4,53,350 votes (46.73%) and defeated AAP candidate Ashish Khetan by a margin of 1,62,708 votes. Khetan received 2,90,642 votes with a vote share of 29.96%. Congress candidate Ajay Makan managed to get 1,82,893 votes with a vote share of 18.85%. Outcome: The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was ahead of the BJP by just 20,185 votes (BJP: 4,53,350 votes and AAP+Congress: 4,73,535 votes).
6. North East Delhi - BJP's Manoj Tiwari received 5,96,125 votes (45.23%) and defeated AAP candidate Anand Kumar by a margin of 1,44,084 votes. Kumar received 4,52,041 votes with a vote share of 34.30%. Congress candidate Jai Prakash Agarwal managed to get 2,14,792 votes with a vote share of 16.30%. Outcome: The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was ahead of the BJP by 70,708 votes (BJP: 5,96,125 votes and AAP+Congress: 6,66,833 votes).
7. Chandni Chowk - BJP's Dr Harsh Vardhan received 4,37,938 votes (44.58%) and defeated AAP candidate Ashutosh by a margin of 1,36,320 votes. Ashutosh received 3,01,618 votes with a vote share of 30.71%. Congress candidate Kapil Sibal managed to get 1,76,206 votes with a vote share of 17.94%. Outcome: The combined strength of the AAP and the Congress was ahead of the BJP by 39,886 votes (BJP: 4,37,938 votes and AAP+Congress: 4,77,824 votes).
