The voters of Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have given historic verdicts. They have given clear mandates, but the results have surprised everybody. Neither the BJP, nor the Congress, nor psephologists had any inkling of the results that were going to come in from Haryana. One point is now clear. Narendra Modi is BJP's biggest strength. He fights elections with fervour and toils hard. The historic hat-trick in Haryana will fire up Modi to prepare his strategies for Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections. It will instill new confidence and energy among BJP workers in both the states. BJP's bargaining power in Maharashtra's Mahayuti alliance will increase.
The biggest message from Haryana verdict is that the narrative created by Congress and other opposition parties about caste reservation, by creating a sense of fear in the minds of Dalits, has now been nullified. In the coming weeks, one may find Modi trying to fix other problems, one by one. He has already reconfigured the pension scheme and brought unanimity. Problems relating to farmers, employment, youths will be resolved. This, in short, is Modi's roadmap for the next few months.
And now, an analysis about Haryana and J&K assembly elections.
HARYANA
For the first time in 57 years, a party has got a third consecutive chance to form a government in Haryana. Even BJP leaders were surprised when the party won 48 out of a total of 90 seats, a clear majority. Congress bigwigs had to cancel their celebrations as trends came in. By evening, the party started alleging that EVMs (electronic voting machines) were tampered with. But Kumari Selja, the Dalit Congress leader, said there was no point cribbing and the party high command should find out the real reasons for the defeat.
Narendra Modi's victory in Haryana will work as a 'sanjeevani'(life-giving medicine) for the BJP. Those who were speaking about Modi's waning popularity have been given a clear reply by the electorate. Congress leadership is now demoralized after having created a big hype about the possibility of winning Haryana polls. Those who were projecting Rahul Gandhi as having the Midas touch, will now find that his 'herbal medicines' have failed.
The Congress used all its fire power in Haryana, and the debate in the party during electioneering was not about how many seats it was going to win, but who would become the Chief Minister. For Rahul Gandhi, who was dreaming of 'conquering' one state after another, the Haryana result has come as a huge setback. Rahul used to say at his rallies that Modi's shoulders have drooped after the Lok Sabha polls, but now he must be seeing Modi's 56-inch chest in his dreams. The defeat in Haryana will surely reduce Rahul's strength in the INDIA bloc. Already, one alliance partner (Shiv Sena UBT) from Maharashtra has remarked that Congress always finds it difficult to win, wherenever there is a straight contest between Congress and BJP. For Congress leaders, it will take time to find out the exact reasons why the party lost. They are yet to recover from the impact.
Narendra Modi is right when he says that whenever Congress loses, it questions EVMs and blames the Election Commission. AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal said, Congress lost in Haryana because of overconfidence. Congress leaders had taken victory in Haryana for granted and they had briefed Rahul Gandhi that the farmers, women, Jats and youths were against BJP. They were citing Agniveer, farmers' agitation and Delhi women wrestlers' agitation as examples. An atmosphere was created to project that Congress return to power was certain.
The result: Infighting began over who would become the CM. Randeep Singh Surjewala did not move out of Kaithal, Kumar Selja stayed at home for most part of the electioneering period, and the party had to bear the brunt. The voters of Haryana have given a clear message that they would support only those leaders who would work on the ground.
Secondly, the decimation of regional and small family-centric parties like INLD, JJP, shows that the days of dynastic politics are almost over. The voters have ruthlessly defeated the members of Chautala dynasty, and rejected Bahujan Samaj party and Kejriwal, too. It is true that in the early days of campaigning, the wind was blowing against the BJP because of the anti-incumbency factor after 10 years of rule. But Narendra Modi silently prepared his strategy.
The entire focus was shifted to project that this election was not about Haryana, but about picking the right choice between BJP and Congress. The message was sent that this was an election against dynastic politics and casteism, a fight between what Modi frequently says, 'naamdaar'(those belonging to dynasty) vs 'kaamdaar' (those who work). Modi's formula clicked and the voters of Haryana made history.
JAMMU & KASHMIR
The results of Jammu & Kashmir have also suprised many. National Conference won more seats that its leaders had expected, while Congress' performace was poor. The NC-Congress alliance has got a clear majority of 48 in a House of 90. Out of this, Congress has won only six seats, while NC has won 42. Out of the 90 seats, 47 are in Kashmir Valley and 43 in Jammu region.
The interesting point is, BJP won 29 out of 43 seats in Jammu region, but could not open its account in Kashmir valley. The biggest setback was for Mehbooba Mufti's JKPDP, which won only three seats. As the picture became clearer, NC leader Dr Farooq Abdullah describes the results as a people's mandate for bringing back Article 370. He declared that his son Omar Abdullah will be the new CM. Omar has won from both seats, Ganderbal and Budgam.
BJP's win in Jammu region is not a big achievement. The surprising part IS that in Kashmir Valley, though the common voters admitted that life has returned to normal after revocation of Article 370, with cinema halls reopening, stone throwers vanishing, yet they said clearly on camera that they would not vote for Modi. The gainer was National Conference. Though BJP did not get votes, at least it has the satisfaction that common people in the Valley have appreciated Modi's work during the last five years.
Farooq Abdullah and his son will now be facing a Catch-22 situation. They have promised to bring back Article 30, but they know it quite well that it is the Parliament which has the power to take such a big decision. So, till the time the NC government stays in power, its leaders would still be searching for answers on this point.
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