Maharashtra close contest: The political splits in Maharashtra since the previous general elections are likely to leave an impact on the NDA’s tally in Maharashtra in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, however, not enough to harm the saffron party enough to stop it from winning the most number of seats in the state next year, according to India TV-CNX Opinion Poll on Saturday (July 29).
The NDA which contested undivided in 2019 comprising Shiv Sena (without factionalism) had secured 41 seats out of 48, however, after the split in Shiv Sena in 2022, the BJP-led NDA is likely to suffer a major loss of seats next year.
According to the Opinion Poll, the BJP is likely to win 20 seats, suffering a loss of 3, while its ally Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde is predicted to win only 2 seats as against its rival faction led by Uddhav Thackeray which is shown to grab 11 seats in 2024. The prediction shows that the loyal voters of Shiv Sena have been undeterred by the split in the party and are likely to back Uddhav Thackeray over Eknath Shinde in the next year's polls.
The NCP (undivided) which won 4 seats in 2019 is likely to win 6 next year. However, out of the 6, the Ajit Pawar faction is likely to win only 2 seats while the Sharad Pawar side may win 4 seats.
Congress is predicted to make a significant jump from its 2019 tally which got stuck to 1 seat. The party is predicted to secure 9 seats in 2024.
According to the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, NDA is likely to get 44% of votes in Maharashtra with BJP getting 32% of votes, alliance partners Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) add 7% and 5% of votes respectively.
The Opposition alliance is likely to get 45% of the votes in Maharashtra with Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) both projected to get 16% of votes each, and NCP (Sharad Pawar) is likely to get 13%.
Overall, the Opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A is likely to dent the BJP’s hopes of repeating its previous show in Maharashtra, as the coalition is likely to win 24 seats.
With new political equations emerging in Maharashtra due to recent splits in Shiv Sena and NCP, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls promise to be a tough battle for numbers in the state.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which was absent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, is now standing strong today and is likely to pose a challenge to the BJP which won the most number of seats in Maharashtra in the previous elections.
In 2019, the BJP and Shiv Sena had contested the elections together as NDA and secured 41 out of 48 seats, riding on the Modi factor which was prevalent last time. The BJP won 23 while Shiv Sena emerged victorious on 18 seats.
The Opposition parties including NCP, Congress, AIMIM, and Independent were crushed as they won only 7 seats together. NCP had bagged 4, and Congress, AIMIM and Independent had won 1 seat each.
However, with new alliances formed since the 2019 general elections in Maharashtra, the number game has become closer for the parties.
Ever since the MVA came into existence in 2019 after the Maharashtra Assembly polls and the recent NCP split necessitated by Ajit Pawar’s exit from the Opposition ranks, the next year’s polls are expected to be a close game.
