As the Haryana Assembly elections approach, political parties are intensifying efforts to secure the support of Dalit voters, a crucial demographic that could significantly influence the election results. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Azad Samaj Party (ASP) have both entered the fray, forming strategic alliances with the state parties to appeal to the Scheduled Caste (SC) community.
While, Abhay Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has teamed up with Mayawati's BSP, Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) has allied with Chandrasekhar Azad's ASP. Significantly, these moves are seen as attempts to consolidate the SC vote, which accounts for 20.2 per cent of Haryana's population according to the 2011 census, with 17 assembly seats reserved for SC candidates.
About the alliance
While, the INLD-BSP alliance will see INLD contesting 53 seats and BSP 37, including all SC reserved seats. The JJP-ASP coalition will have JJP contesting 70 seats and ASP 20. Significantly, these alliances and seat distributions underscore the importance of this demographic in a state where every vote counts. With the election landscape rapidly evolving, the role of Dalit voters and their impact on the final outcome remain pivotal and unprecedent.
Past trends
In the 2009 Vidhan Sabha elections, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) won nine reserved seats, securing 36 percent of the votes, while the Congress won seven seats with 40 percent of the vote share. Other parties managed to win just one seat. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received six percent and four percent of the votes in these reserved constituencies, respectively. In the 2014 elections, the BJP won nine reserved seats, while the INLD secured three seats and the Congress won four. The BJP captured 33 percent of the votes in these seats, the INLD 29 percent, the Congress 25 percent, and the BSP three percent. By the 2019 elections, the BJP's hold on reserved seats decreased to five, while the Congress increased its tally to seven, and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) won four. In this election, the BJP maintained 33 percent of the vote share in reserved seats, the Congress obtained 30 percent, the JJP 22 percent, the BSP three percent, and the INLD’s vote share dropped to just one percent.
What can be predicted for future
Looking ahead, the upcoming elections in Haryana again likely to see a fiercely contested battle for the reserved seats, with each party aiming to strengthen its position among Scheduled Caste (SC) voters. Given the evolving political landscape and recent shifts in voter allegiance, the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely aiming to regain its stronghold in reserved constituencies, especially as it faces increasing competition from both the Congress and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). The Congress on the other hand too will attempt to build on its gains from the 2019 elections by consolidating support among SC voters and forming strategic alliances.
Moreover, the JJP, which made a notable debut in the last elections, will look to expand its influence further. And, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) could play a crucial role in potentially splitting the vote, thereby influencing the overall outcome in these reserved seats.
