New Delhi: Further stepping up pressure on the Centre, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin proposed that the 1971 Census be the basis for delimitation of parliamentary constituencies for 30 years starting 2026 and favoured a Joint Action Committee (JAC) involving all southern states to press for related demands. At an all-party meeting on delimitation that was attended by main opposition party All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), among others, MK Stalin said that in the event of an increase in the number of seats in Parliament, the 1971 Census should be the basis for it and that an appropriate constitutional amendment should be done.
In the recent weeks, there has been a renewed debate about delimitation after the issue was raised by the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. The development comes as the delimitation of constituencies for the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies will be carried out on the basis of the first Census after 2026.
However, Union Home Minister Amit Shah last week assured that no state would lose a single parliamentary seat if a delimitation exercise were conducted, seeking to allay long-standing concerns in states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala. But these states fear that delimiting electoral constituencies based on the latest population data could reduce their parliamentary representation.
What is delimitation?
It is a process of drawing the boundaries of electoral constituencies, and it is the way to determine how many seats each state gets in the Parliament. This task has been given to an independent Delimitation Commission, appointed by the President. The commission comprises a retired Supreme Court or High Court judge, the Chief Election Commissioner, and the State Election Commissioner.
History of delimitation
Right now, the distribution of Lok Sabha seats is based on the 1971 Census. In 1976, during the Emergency, the Indira Gandhi-led government passed the 42nd Constitutional Amendment, pausing the revision of parliamentary seats for 25 years, until the 2001 Census.
Then in 2001, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led government extended this restriction until 2026 through the 84th Constitutional Amendment. The reason for both amendments was to promote population control measures. The whole idea was to prevent states that successfully curbed population growth from being penalised with fewer seats while ensuring that those with higher population growth were not rewarded with more Members of Parliament.
What are two scenarios under discussion for revised delimitation?
The population explosion in India during the last five decades has been uneven, with some states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan having a greater increase than other states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Right now, there are two scenarios that are being discussed with respect to the revised delimitation exercise.
The first one is to continue with the existing 543 seats and their redistribution amongst various states. And the second is to increase the number of seats to 848, with a proportionate increase among various states. According to this scenario, Tamil Nadu is likely to lose 8 Lok Sabha seats, and the total seats will be 31 from the existing 39.
The second scenario is based on projected population, and many states in the south and some states in the north, like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, as well as northeastern states, are bound to be at a disadvantage when compared to the larger northern states. According to this scenario, Tamil Nadu is likely to gain 10 Lok Sabha seats, and the total seats will be 49 from the existing 39. It might lead to a feeling of disenchantment in the states that stand to lose in their proportional representation and thereby political significance, despite controlling their population.
Number of seats will not be reduced for any state: Shah
Recently, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said in a recent public meeting that the number of seats will not be reduced for any state and that it would be increased on a 'pro-rata' basis for all states, including the southern states. The basis for this 'pro-rata' share for states — whether it will be based on the existing percentage in the share of seats or on projected population — is not clear.