Former US President Donald Trump's landslide victory in the Iowa presidential caucuses have set the stage for a 2020 rematch between him and Democratic President Joe Biden. Although one of the least surprising victories, Trump registered an unprecedented margin as he left behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was in second place, by a massive 32,840 votes.
The former President has won 20 out of the 40 delegates from Iowa with 56,250 votes and his closest rivals DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley were miles behind him. Notably, Trump kickstarted his bid to win party's third consecutive presidential nomination despite skipping the GOP primary debates. The results affirmed Trump's unparalleled dominance in the Republican camp and his high popularity despite four major criminal indictments against him.
However, the road ahead is not easy for Trump as he continues to face substantial challenges to his campaign, including multiple criminal indictments and ongoing legal battles in courtrooms across the country. He has also been removed from the primary ballots of two states - Colorado and Maine. However, Trump has framed his legal issues as "political attacks" arguing he is the victim of a "witch hunt" as he vies for another term.
Notably, at least 64 countries across the world are heading for elections this year - including the US and India - which means that nearly half the global population are set to vote in 2024. The US presidential elections are the proverbial 'elephant in the room' as all eyes would be on the divisive contest between Republicans and Democrats that will have dire geopolitical consequences on the rest of the world.
US presidential elections: The process
The US will go for presidential elections on November 5, 2024, where the winning candidate will be elected for a four-year tenure. The last elections saw Joe Biden defeating Trump in a close contest. Candidates from two main political parties - the Democrats and the Republicans - participate in the process to decide the government. Other parties like The Green Party, Libertarians, and Natural Law Party are generally considered 'outliers'.
A year before the election year, candidates from both political parties register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president and begin their campaign trails, including by setting up teams and canvassing the nation to rally support and fundraise their presidential bids. At the start of their campaigns, candidates from both parties participate in intra-party televised debates, where they answer tough questions and defend their stance on issues against other candidates.
The election process formally begins during the start of the election year, when primaries and caucuses take place to decide on the final presidential nominee from each party. In a caucus, members of the party select the best candidate through a series of discussions and votes, while in a primary, party members vote for the best candidate for the general election.
From June onwards, both parties hold a national convention to select the final presidential candidate. Here, delegates from the primaries and caucuses selected to represent the people have to endorse their favorite candidates and the final presidential nominee from each party. The presidential candidate also chooses a vice presidential candidate, also known as a running mate. It is from here that presidential candidates begin their campaign to win public support.
In September and October, candidates from both parties participate in presidential debates with each other, which are based on various policies and issues. At the start of November, people from all 50 states vote for their favourite presidential candidate and running mate. It is important to note that people actually cast their votes for a group of people called electors.
There are a total of 538 electors in all states. Except for Maine and Nebraska, who use a proportional system, if a candidate receives a majority of the votes from a state then they will receive all electoral votes from the state. For example, all 54 of California's electoral votes will go to the candidate who secures a victory margin of 50.1 per cent to 49.9 per cent. It is possible to lose the popular vote but still win the Electoral College, like in the 2016 elections, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton despite getting fewer votes.
The Electoral College vote takes place in mid-December when the electors meet in their states. Here, electors or representatives from each state in numbers proportional to the state’s population cast their vote and determine who will be president. The candidate who gets more than 270 votes in the College wins the election and will be inaugurated alongside the Vice President in January.
Who are the candidates for 2024 elections?
Although there are several candidates from both parties, the presidential contest is largely speculated to be a repeat of the 2020 polls, between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who are dominating their parties for the race. A name was removed from the Republican list after Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his presidential campaign following a disappointing performance in the Iowa caucuses, leaving only four candidates in the fold - Trump, DeSantis, Nikki Haley and businessman-pastor Ryan Binkley.
From the Democratic side, candidates competing in the presidential race apart from Biden are author and spiritual adviser Marianne Williamson and Democrat Representative Dean Philips. Williamson unsuccessfully campaigned in 2020 and supported reparations for slavery. Philips, on the other hand, has argued that Biden's age and low ratings mean that the party should nominate someone else, the NYT reports.
Some independent and third-party candidates in the fold include activist Robert F Kennedy Jr, the nephew of former President John F Kennedy, who earlier intended to run for the Democrats. Professor of Philosophy Cornel West and Green Party leader and activist Jill Stein are also running for the presidential elections this year.
How do US elections differ from India's Lok Sabha polls?
Despite being two of the largest democracies in the world, there are considerable differences between the elections held in India and the United States. Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC) have largely dominated the fray in India, a lot of regional parties like Trinamool Congress (TMC), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Samajwadi Party have considerable impact, unlike a two-party contest in the US.
India's electoral process is also different, being a parliamentary system, where members of the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Parliament, are chosen through universal adult suffrage and a first-past-the-post system to represent their respective constituencies. The Lower House has 545 seats, out of which elections will be conducted by the Election Commission to fill 543 seats, as the remaining two seats are filled by representatives of the Anglo-Indian Community. At the end of the elections, the Prime Minister of India is selected through the confidence of the majority of the Lok Sabha members.
As such, India does not have any caucuses or primary debates before the elections. Unlike the US, the Election Commission of India yields a larger authority in setting up the elections, counting votes and enlisting the service of police or military forces to ensure safety. In the US, the Federal Election Commission and the US Election Assistance Commission (EAC) are two federal bodies overlooking the elections, but their roles are largely limited to setting up financial regulations. India also has a larger voter turnout due to its higher population.
It is interesting to observe that like the US, a party can get more seats and win the election, even in State Assembly polls, despite getting fewer votes. Like in 2016, when Trump won through the Electoral College, the Congress in Madhya Pradesh bested the BJP in 2018 despite getting fewer votes in the 230-member House. In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, the Congress’ vote share was 38 per cent while that of the BJP was 36.2 per cent, but the latter won 26 seats more than its rival. However, it is a less frequent occurrence in India.
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