After almost 14 years of civil war, Syria went through unprecedented change in its political landscape as within 10 days of launching an offensive, the opposition rebels successfully took control of Damascus, ending Bashar Al-Assad's rule. The development may change the entrenched dynamics of the Middle East as Syria and Assad remained one of the key players in the region.
The fall started with the second largest city Aleppo and concluded with Damascus on Sunday. Assad fled the country and took asylum in Russia. The country is in the phase of political transition right now as Assad, the Syrian PM and Russia all have voiced for it.
What led the Assad regime to such a consequence?
Assad's regime had been controversial as in 2011 massive protests against the alleged oppression and persecution started which converted into a civil war because of his government's policy of brutal crackdown on protestors.
The only adamant backing it got in the world order was from Russia and Iran, which also proved consequential in its sustenance of control while fighting with ISIS terrorists. Given the 14-year history of instability and fragility, the Western countries, including Israel in the Middle East have hailed the ouster of Assad. On the contrary, the development didn't go well with Russia and Iran.
One of the most prominent reasons for Assad's fall is the indulgence of Russia into war with Ukraine and Hezbollah into war with Israel. Both its supporters are occupied in their own conflicts and had little capabilities to extend to Syria.
Challenges for Middle East
Iran: As said, the biggest blow in the Middle East is to Iran. Iran has been a staunch supporter of Assad. Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once called Assad and Syria “the golden ring of the resistance chain in the region.”
“Without the Syrian government, this chain will break and the resistance against Israel and its supporters will be weakened,” he said. Assad's ouster has come with a disruptive effect on the "Axis of Resistance" as Syria was a crucial geographical link that Iran used to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah which has sustained significant losses in the war with Israel will become weaker without weapon supply.
Isarel: Meanwhile, Israel has lauded the fall of the Assad regime but challenges still persist for it as the new regime in neighbouring Syria would be of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda and is a designated terrorist organisation in Israel.
Given that, Israel took control of the buffer zone in Golam Heights in what it termed as part of its "enhanced preparedness." The army said in a statement that the barrier was named "New East."
Turkey: Meanwhile, observers and analysts believe that the offensive could not have gone ahead without Turkey's consent, although Turkish officials have denied such claims. Since 2011, Turkey has been a key backer for the opposition rebels. Turkey used its Syrian proxies to push back Kurdish forces which pose a threat at its southern border.
Despite being designated as a terrorist organisation in Ankara, Turkey has operated alongside HTS. However, the political development in Syria comes with uncertainties for Turkey as the vacuum generated after Assad's withdrawal could be potentially utilised by anti-Turkey Kurdish forces. The last thing it wants is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on its border or a fresh exodus of refugees created by instability.
(With inputs from AP)
