After quite a period of stagnancy, the civil war in Syria has erupted once again, and this time the rebels have thundered a sudden blitzkrieg infighting on the President Bashar al-Assad regime, taking direct aim at the core of his rule, the capital, Damascus itself. For almost four years, the Syrian government consolidated the territorial control of its major cities, throwing minor pockets of confrontation outside the zone of control. However, there is an intense dramatic escalation in the northwest that brings once again the civil war to the table.
Rebels' resurgence
The offensive, launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel factions, has very much surprised the Syrian regime. Within a short period, rebels, especially HTS, have succeeded in taking strategic areas, including the strategic city that was last reclaimed by the government back in 2016. The act underlined a highly momentous change in the pattern of the war. According to analysts, this offensive is coming through during an understaffed time for Assad's outside patrons—Russia, Iran and Hezbollah—now involved to their ears in others' real local conflicts, notably that of Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon.
Turkey’s possible role
However, some analysts believe that there could be something else behind the rebels' resurgence. Former US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford said that the government of Ankara has possibly tacitly endorsed the offensive since there have been no fruitful negotiations with the Assad regime regarding the return of Syrian refugees. By pushing for the recapture of territory, the rebels could then use this leverage to send some of the unwanted Syrian refugees back into areas under their control, weakening Assad's position in the negotiations. Turkey denied involvement, but it is the coordination of the rebel factions with the bolstered support provided by Turkish-backed militias that serve as the defining elements in this insurgent momentum.
Exploiting Assad’s weakness
The other reason for the unexpected offensive is a deduction based on the dwindling resources of Assad. Rebels seem to have found the time and opportunity to exploit weaknesses within Assad's grip on the country due to the heavy reliance of his military on Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias. Apart from the recent constraints faced by Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian assets in Syria have further weakened the defenses of Assad.
Psychological blow
The rebels’ strategy is not only a military push but also a psychological blow to the regime. With Aleppo—a city symbolic of Assad's victory in the past—falling into rebel hands once again, the offensive represents a victory for those opposed to Assad’s rule after years of defeat.
Why is there a war in Syria?
The roots of the Syrian war date back to March 2011, when pro-democracy protests erupted in the southern city of Deraa. Inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings, Syrians took to the streets demanding President Bashar al-Assad’s resignation, hoping to rid the country of his autocratic rule. The government’s brutal crackdown on these protests escalated quickly, turning peaceful demonstrations into full-scale rebellion.
The escalating war
What began as a quest for democratic reform spiraled into a multi-front civil war. Assad's regime, backed by Russia and Iran, fought to maintain control over the country. Rebel factions, both moderate and extremist, emerged from the opposition, often at odds with one another, making the conflict more complex. Groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), originally part of Al-Qaeda’s global jihadist network, grew in influence, focusing on toppling Assad and establishing their vision of governance in areas under their control.
International powers and humanitarian crisis
As the war raged on, foreign powers took sides, with the United States and European countries supporting moderate rebel factions, while Russia and Iran backed Assad’s regime. Meanwhile, extremist groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS) seized territory and declared their caliphate, further complicating the conflict.
The war has led to catastrophic humanitarian consequences: over half a million deaths, 12 million displaced people, and widespread destruction across the country. In addition to the internal factions, the war became a proxy battleground for regional and global powers, each with their interests.
Turning the tide: Rebels push southward
By 2018, it seemed as if Assad had gained the upper hand, regaining most of the country with the help of Russian airstrikes and Iranian militia support. But the battle for Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold, remained unresolved. Although a ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey held since 2020, the recent escalation marks a dramatic shift.
As rebel forces push southward, and with key cities like Homs and Deir el-Zour now threatened, Assad’s future looks uncertain. The rebels are no longer merely defending their territories—they are actively pushing to reassert control over regions once lost, and Damascus is once again in their sights. Whether this offensive leads to a definitive victory for the opposition or forces the regime to regroup with international support remains to be seen. However, this latest flare-up underscores the deeply entrenched divisions within Syria and the fragility of any lasting peace.
