As American foreign policy palpably shifts away from its traditional stance of isolating Russia, the world order is likely to witness a rejig. India, being one of the prominent emerging powers, is also taking close note of the development between heavyweights and is likely to shape its policy to conform with the redesigned global order.
Certain aspects are likely to go in India's favour if the Kremlin and Pentagon tread a friendly path, which includes the following:
India's position as a counter to China may get stronger
India's position as a counterbalance against China will become stronger as the US is likely to ease things for Russia. The Russia-China ties have prospered with unprecedented speed while Biden was in power, thanks to his 'pivot to Europe.'. With Trump in power, Beijing-Moscow relations are set to witness a degree of dilution.
India's defence ties with Russia
As the US and Russia come closer, India will have an open space to undertake defence acquisition with Moscow, without the potential threat of US sanctions hovering overhead. While Biden enjoyed the presidency in the US, trade with Russia appeared a challenge.
Impact on QUAD
Russia has remained sceptical of QUAD, a group of India, the US, Australia, and Japan. With Trump likely to integrate Russia with the Western bloc, Russian apprehension towards the QUAD is also expected to wither away.
What about Indian investments in Russia?
If the US decides in favour of lifting sanctions put on Russia, Western powers are likely to follow suit. If Moscow gets rid of sanctions, Indian investments in Russia will be more profitable. For example, Sakhalin projects bring Russia and India together on oil and gas development. India can initiate more energy projects in collaboration with Russia.
Diversification in defence acquisition
The melting ice in the Russia and US relations will potentially give India's defence acquisition a good chance of diversification. The four years of Trump's presidency come at a time when India is more urgently than ever looking to take stopgap measures to plug the gap vis-a-vis China's military prowess. With the Pentagon and Kremlin coming together, India's defence aspirations stand a good chance to benefit.
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