Allies' recalibration: With the prospects of Opposition unity flourishing under Congress, the BJP is attempting to calibrate its electoral strategy with some new inductions and the homecoming of a few older ones. The Opposition, which unlike in 2019 merely could gather on a single stage for a photo-op, is attempting this time to bring all anti-BJP parties to stick together for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls which already promise to be a mammoth challenge for both - BJP and Congress-led side.
Congress, after the victory in the Karnataka Assembly elections and NCP split in Maharashtra, finds itself in a commanding position to dictate terms to the rest of the Opposition which was already willing to come under an umbrella of parties against the BJP including the Aam Aadmi Party. The presence of Sonia Gandhi in the second Opposition meet in Bengaluru scheduled on Tuesday (July 18) is its testimony.
Keeping in view Congress's resurgent influence over the Opposition parties, which mostly comprise regional or smaller parties having a hold over various sections of society, the BJP has had to return to the discussion table to rethink its strategy.
BJP's possible strategy
One part of the plan that is evident on the ruling party’s side is the induction of some new and influential leaders and the homecoming of some old ones who, for some reason, had quit the NDA in the past.
The first step taken towards this was the vertical split of NCP in the form of Ajit Pawar who joined the Maharashtra government on July 2 this year along with eight of his camp’s MLA, forcing Sharad Pawar to take a back seat in the Opposition ranks, which ultimately proved fruitful to the Congress in the state.
The return of Jitan Ram Manjhi, and OP Rajbhar might come out to be useful for the BJP in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh respectively where caste plays a vital role in the electoral process. Chirag Paswan is also willing to return to the NDA, though with a condition that Pashupati Paras does not remain a part of the alliance. But, will these new and old partnerships help the BJP enough to counter the Opposition unity which is building with the participation of 26 parties in Bengaluru? This number was 15 in the June 23 Patna meeting, which was an addition of 11 more parties within a span of a month. To deliberate on its future strategy going forward, the BJP has called a meeting of its NDA allies on July 18 in the national capital.
Which parties can be potential allies of the BJP in the future?
Telugu Desam Party (TDP)
The Chandrababu Naidu-led party, an old ally of the BJP, had parted ways from the saffron party in 2018 and contested the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls separately and suffered a rout. The TDP may be one of the next options for the BJP to turn to, aiming to set its foot firmly in the southern region. The saffron party had failed to open its account in Andhra Pradesh in the 2019 general elections while the TDP had managed to win 3 seats out of the 25 in the state. Meanwhile, YSRCP had bagged 22 seats.
It may turn out to be beneficial for both parties which can support each other to gain some ground in the state in the next year’s elections.
Moreover, TDP was BJP’s ally from 1998 to 2005 and again from 2014 to 2018. It is the main opposition party of Andhra Pradesh presently and still has some pockets of influence in the neighbouring state of Telangana.
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)
The Sukhbir Singh Badal-led party had been one of the oldest allies of the BJP before the former decided to pull back its support to the latter over the contentious farm laws in 2020. Both were in alliance from 1996 to 2020 and also shared power in Punjab from 1997 to 2002 and again from 2007 to 2017.
Last year, the SAD had cast its vote in favour of the NDA’s Presidential candidate Droupadi Murmu, which also helped in her emphatic victory against the Opposition candidate Yashwant Sinha.
However, the SAD has voiced its objection to the Uniform Civil Code which made the headlines recently after the law commission sought suggestions from the stakeholders. But it cannot be overlooked that SAD has been one of the oldest allies. Moreover, the surge of the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab where it won the Assembly elections with a landslide victory last year, has posed a major threat to both parties’ prospects. Moreover, Congress is now leading the Opposition unity, of which AAP is most likely going to be a part of, and it is likely that both parties contest together in Punjab.
With the SAD’s partnership and Captain Amarinder Singh’s leadership in the state, the BJP may find its feet once again and may challenge the AAP and Congress in the bordering state which has seen a surge in the law and order situation in the recent past.
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)
The Jayant Chaudhary-led party has allied with the BJP in the past including for the 2002 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls and 2009 Lok Sabha elections. However, Chaudhary had contested the last year’s Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections in alliance with the Samajwadi Party and against the BJP. But the reports of him developing fissures in his cordial relationship with Akhilesh Yadav after differences over seat sharing in the local elections may have given BJP a window to approach him and try to woo him back into the NDA camp.
RLD has a considerable influence in the western part of Uttar Pradesh. After OP Rajbhar’s re-entry into the saffron side, the induction of Jayant Chaudhary will surely be a shot in the arm for the BJP in the 2024 polls.
Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP)
An ex-ally of the BJP, RLP contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections together and its chief Hanuman Beniwal won the Nagaur parliamentary constituency in Rajasthan where the party is majorly active. However, it had withdrawn from the alliance in 2020 due to the introduction of farm laws.
It has since then been working for the anti-Congress and anti-BJP alliance. Beniwal had offered Sachin Pilot to float his own outfit, amid a rift with Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, and he would forge an alliance with the new party. However, with Congress leading the joint Opposition alliance and Pilot has buried the hatchet with Gehlot, the RLP chief may well see BJP as his option once again. The party has just 1 seat in Lok Sabha and with the Congress fighting unitedly (Gehlot + Pilot) in Rajasthan, the BJP may look to woo its former ally and bring it back into the hut.
Janata Dal (Secular)
Following a washout in the Karnataka Assembly polls earlier this year, and not being invited for the Opposition meeting, BJP is the most likely option for the JDS to go to. Moreover, after the saffron party lost power in the only southern state it ruled, it is keen on cracking a formula to take on the Congress party in Karnataka where it recently won with a huge majority. The second joint Opposition meeting will also be held in Bengaluru on July 18, indicating that Congress is the central force navigating the Opposition unity in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls.
Though the BJP won 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 polls, it would be looking to form a relatively formidable tie-up with a party, in view of the resurgent Congress might in the state lately.
Moreover, the JDS was with the BJP between 2006 and 2007. HD Kumaraswamy became the CM of Karnataka for the first time in 2006 by toppling the then-Dharam Singh government with the support of the BJP.
Another possible ally could be Biju Janata Dal led by Naveen Patnaik which has extended support to the BJP on numerous occasions including in the 2022 Presidential election. The BJD had been an NDA ally at the Centre during former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s tenure. YSRCP can also be a potential ally for the BJP in Andhra if TDP does not come around as the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led party has also voiced its support to the Centre over several issues.
The permutation and combination that’s underway in both the NDA as well as the Opposition camps suggest a fierce battle for the chair in 2024.
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