The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) met in Delhi on Tuesday (July 18) to chalk out the strategy against the newly-formed 'INDIA' alliance of 26 Opposition parties. The BJP with its 38 old and new partners not only outnumbered the Opposition bloc but was also successful in projecting itself as a united front before the 2024 Lok Sabha Election. However, the 'INDIA' alliance failed to showcase a 'United We Stand' tagline after Janata Dal-United (JDU) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar skipped the joint opposition press briefing in Bengaluru along with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav. Prime Minister Narendra Modi later in the day attacked the Opposition alliance and said that the BJP secured more than 200 constituencies in various states with over 50 per cent of the vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Prime Minister indicated that even the coming together of 26 Opposition parties is not enough to stop his electoral winning juggernaut. In 2014, the BJP won 136 seats with over 50% of the vote share.
A close analysis by India TV Digital found that the BJP won 224 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election with more than 50 per cent of the vote share. Uttar Pradesh contributed the most with 40 seats in this tally followed by Gujarat (26), Madhya Pradesh (25), Rajasthan (23) and Karnataka (22). 272 is the majority mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha and the BJP was just 48 short of it on its own in 2019. It is a clear indicator that even after the Opposition alliance, it is not going to be a cakewalk to defeat the saffron party in its strongholds.
Let's discuss the 2019 Lok Sabha Election result in detail and try to understand the index of Opposition unity in these states.
Uttar Pradesh: 80
The BJP and its alliance partner Apna Dal (Sonelal) secured victory in 64 seats (62: BJP and 2: Apna Dal-S) even after the 'Mahagathbandhan' of the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). The alliance of the trio could secure only 15 seats with the Mayawati's BSP winning 10 seats. The Akhilesh Yadav-led SP won only 5 seats. Sonia Gandhi was the sole winner of the Congress party from Rae Bareli after Rahul Gandhi lost Amethi to BJP's Smriti Irani. The NDA got more than 50% of the vote share in the entire state. Notably, the BJP won 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state with more than 50% of the vote share. These seats were Kairana, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Hathras, Mathura, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Etah, Aonla, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Kheri, Hardoi, Misrikh, Unnao, Lucknow, Farrukhabad, Etawah, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Fatehpur, Phulpur, Allahabad, Bahraich, Kaiserganj, Gonda, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushi Nagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Salempur and Varanasi. With the BSP deciding to contest the 2024 election on its own and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) of Om Prakash Rajbhar joining hands with the BJP, the question is whether the SP-RLD combine will fight the battle with the BJP-led NDA alone or forge an alliance with the Congress party in the state. According to several reports, the BJP is trying to woo the RLD in order to expand its footprint in the western part of the state.
Gujarat: 26
The BJP won all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. The party received more than 70 per cent of the vote share in Navsari, Vadodara and Surat. The party secured more than 60 per cent of the vote share in Kachchh, Banaskantha, Mahesana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad East, Ahmedabad West, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Kheda, Panchmahal, Chhota Udaipur and Valsad. The party won Patan, Sabarkantha, Surendranagar, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Amreli, Anand, Dahod, Bharuch and Bardoli constituencies comfortably with more than 50 per cent of the vote share. The Opposition unity here is not likely to have an impact as can be seen by the magnitude of the BJP's victory. It is one of the states where there is a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress.
Madhya Pradesh: 29
The BJP registered a landslide victory in Madhya Pradesh in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, winning 28 seats except for the Chhindwara constituency. The party secured 25 seats in the state with more than 50% of the vote share. These seats were Bhind, Gwalior, Guna, Sagar, Tikamgarh, Damoh, Khajuraho, Satna, Rewa, Sidhi, Shahdol, Jabalpur, Balaghat, Hoshangabad, Vidisha, Bhopal, Rajgarh, Dewas, Ujjain, Mandsour, Dhar, Indore, Khargone, Khandwa and Betul. Any Opposition alliance in Madhya Pradesh is also not likely to make any headway as far as the Lok Sabha poll is concerned. The state will witness a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress party.
Rajasthan: 25
This is another state where there is a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP won 23 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Ganganagar, Bikaner, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Jaipur Rural, Jaipur, Alwar, Bharatpur, Karauli-Dholpur, Dausa, Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Bhilwara, Kota and Jhalawar-Baran.
Karnataka: 28
The BJP registered a massive victory in Karnataka with 25 seats and decimated the Congress-Janata Dal Secular (JDS) alliance. The saffron party won 22 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davanagere, Shimoga, Udupi Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga, Mysore, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South, Chikkballapur and Kolar. The saffron party won Chikkballapur, Chamarajanagar and Kolar seats for the first time in its electoral history. The BJP is likely to form an alliance with the HD Deve Gowda-led JDS this time after its defeat in the Karnataka Assembly Election.
Maharashtra: 48
In Maharashtra, the BJP won 15 seats in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Dhule, Jalgaon, Raver, Wardha, Nagpur, Bhandara-Gondiya, Jalna, Bhiwandi, Mumbai North, Mumbai North East, Mumbai North Central, Pune, Ahmadnagar, Beed and Latur. The BJP will contest the 2024 election in the state with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and other parties including the Republican Party of India and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha. The Opposition alliance will have the Congress party, the NCP and the Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray. The contest is likely to be interesting in this state as both the alliances are looking formidable at least on paper and the impact of the split in Shiv Sena and NCP is not yet known.
Bihar: 40
The BJP won 14 seats in Bihar in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Paschim Champaran, Purvi Champaran, Sheohar, Madhubani, Araria, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Maharajganj, Saran, Ujiarpur, Begusarai, Patna Sahib, Arrah and Sasaram. The JDU was with the NDA in 2019 along with the LJP. Now, Nitish Kumar is with the RJD and the Congress party. The BJP has already wooed Chirag Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi to offset any loss due to the departure of Kumar.
Haryana: 10
In Haryana, the BJP won 9 seats in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Ambala, Kurukshetra, Sirsa, Hisar, Karnal, Sonipat, Bhiwani-Mahendragarh, Gurgaon and Faridabad.
Jharkhand: 14
The BJP won 8 seats in 2019 in Jharkhand with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Godda, Chatra, Kodarma, Dhanbad, Ranchi, Jamshedpur, Palamau and Hazaribagh. The BJP fought the elections along with the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) while the Congress contested along with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the RJD and the Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik). 2024 will witness the same alliances barring Marandi who has joined the BJP.
Delhi: 7
The BJP registered a landslide victory in Delhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, winning all 7 seats again. The party won Chandni Chowk, North East Delhi, East Delhi, New Delhi, North West Delhi, West Delhi and South Delhi with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. It seems that the proposed alliance between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress party is not likely to create any significant inroads for the saffron camp as far as the Lok Sabha Election is concerned.
Assam: 14
In Assam, the BJP won 7 seats in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Silchar, Autonomous District, Gauhati, Tezpur, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and Lakhimpur.
Chhattisgarh: 11
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP won 6 seats in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Sarguja, Bilaspur, Rajnandgaon, Durg, Raipur and Mahasamund. Chhattisgarh is another state where there will be a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress party.
West Bengal: 42
The BJP surprised everyone with its performance in West Bengal in 2019 when it won 18 seats. The party won 5 seats with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats are Alipurduars, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Ranaghat and Asansol.
Uttarakhand: 5
In Uttarakhand, the BJP won all 5 seats in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent. These seats were Tehri Garhwal, Garhwal, Almora, Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar and Haridwar. The state will witness a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress party.
Himachal Pradesh: 4
In Himachal, the BJP won all 4 seats in 2019 with a vote share of more than 65 per cent. These seats were Kangra, Mandi, Shimla and Hamirpur.
Jammu and Kashmir: 5
The BJP won Jammu and Udhampur seats in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent.
Arunachal Pradesh: 2
The BJP won both Arunachal West and Arunachal East constituencies in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent.
Punjab: 13
BJP candidate Sunny Deol won the Gurdaspur Lok Sabha seat in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent.
Tripura: 2
In Tripura, the BJP won the Tripura West Lok Sabha seat in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent.
Chandigarh: 1
BJP candidate Kirron Kher won the Chandigarh Lok Sabha seat in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent.
Goa: 2
In Goa, the BJP won the North Goa Lok Sabha seat in 2019 with a vote share of more than 50 per cent.
