After weeks of deadly protests, Bangladesh is making its final preparations for an interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who is expected to be sworn in on Thursday to replace ousted leader Sheikh Hasina. Yunus, 84, was chosen by President Mohammed Shahabuddin to lead the new interim government and boarded a flight en route to Dhaka from Paris.
"Let us make the best use of our new victory. I fervently appeal to everybody to stay calm. Please refrain from all kinds of violence," said Yunus in a statement to Reuters before departing Paris, following weeks of chaotic student protests that drove Hasina out of the country. Yunus is a harsh critic of Hasina and is reputed as a 'banker to the poor', receiving the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize for founding the Grameen Bank, which provided small loans to the poor without collateral.
Hasina's dramatic exit on Monday from the country has left its polity and its relations with India in muddy waters. It is uncertain how India-Bangladesh ties, which enjoyed its "Golden era" under Hasina, may progress under Yunus' interim government and the possible rise of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who have had strained ties in the past with New Delhi.
What did Yunus say about ties with India?
The Nobel laureate described Hasina's ouster on Monday (August 5) as a "second liberation" for Bangladesh and called on students at the forefront of the protests to provide leadership in all aspects. However, he has criticised India's close relationship with Hasina, saying it "earned the enmity of the Bangladeshi people" but said there will be several opportunities to heal these rifts.
"Although some countries, such as India, backed the ousted prime minister and earned the enmity of the Bangladeshi people as a result, there will be many opportunities to heal these kinds of rifts and to resume bilateral alliances and close friendships soon," he wrote in an article in The Economist.
In an interview with Indian media, Yunus said Bangladeshis were angry with neighbour India for allowing Hasina to land there after fleeing Dhaka. "India is our best friend ... people are angry at India because you are supporting the person who destroyed our lives," Yunus said, adding that the ties between India and Bangladesh should be similar to "best friends" rather than involving mistrust and suspicion.
He also said India's response to the turmoil as an "internal matter" of Bangladesh "hurt him" as the crisis may spread to neighbouring countries. India should commend Bangladesh for every transparent election and condemn it for deviating from democratic norms, he further said, while blaming India for not encouraging Dhaka to achieve this goal through diplomatic channels.
What did Yunus say on SAARC?
The head of the upcoming interim government in Bangladesh has raised a very interesting issue by calling for a revival of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). In his article in The Economist, Yunus said he hoped that the "liberation" of Bangladesh could revive the suspended SAARC and "make it a powerful force for integration in our region and beyond."
Notably, SAARC is a regional intergovernmental bloc comprising India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The bloc was the brainchild of former Bangladeshi military ruler and President Ziaur Rahman and was formally established in 1985, with the first meeting held in Dhaka.
There have been 18 SAARC summits held till date, but the bloc has not been successful. The 19th SAARC Summit scheduled in Islamabad in 2016 was called off after a terrorist attack on an Indian Army camp in Jammu and Kashmir's Uri, and other governments also declined to participate. The alliance remains suspended since the last biennial summit in Kathmandu in 2014. India has instead shifted its focus towards other regional blocs like the BIMSTEC, which does not include Pakistan.
Factors behind calls for revival of SAARC
Many countries, particularly in the South Asian region, have called for a revival of the SAARC bloc, which has been plagued by infighting, mistrust and a definite lack of consensus. According to the World Bank, SAARC is the least integrated region in the world – less than 5 per cent, compared to East Asia’s 35 per cent and Europe’s 60 per cent.
Much of the mistrust has been fuelled by the differences in the geography, economy, military strength and influence between India and other member countries, which have led them to perceive India as a "big brother" rather than a helpful ally. Adding to the problems is a resource crunch and a lack of mechanisms to resolve conflicts.
It is important to mention here that South Asia is home to a quarter of the global population with a diverse socioeconomic group containing a largely young demographic. The advantages of a regional bloc like SAARC lie in advancing trade, cultural flows and people-to-people exchanges along with promoting areas of connectivity, power generation, scientific development, development of health and educational institutions. Due to the close proximity of these countries, they often face similar threats and challenges which are appropriately resolved through constructive dialogue with their immediate partners.
What Yunus' remarks on SAARC revival might mean?
However, Yunus' remarks may also suggest another motive. The recent turmoil in Bangladesh has exposed the threat of China, which claims to be a strong supporter of SAARC, making advances in the country. While Hasina was in charge, India's relations with Bangladesh flourished and she made efforts to crack down on terrorism, taking due notice of New Delhi's concerns. Hasina's removal and the possible return of the BNP has proved to be a major setback for India, which will now be forced to rethink and reset its ties with its neighbour.
As such, Yunus' remarks may signal a push for closer cooperation with other members of SAARC nations, including Pakistan, as well as China, which has sought to extend its influence in the country. Bangladesh's ties with China had already started warming as it sought a range of military equipment, including submarines and fighter jets. Bangladesh is also a part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, along with other SAARC nations excluding India and Bhutan. Additionally, the possible return of the Jamaat-e-Islami may also pave the way for Pakistan's entry into Bangladesh politics, adding to India's fears.
In this case, Bangladesh may be walking the same path as Sri Lanka and the Maldives by deepening relations with China, and it would also provide Beijing with the opportunity to establish its support for SAARC nations, undermining India's influence. It can also be assumed that China's well-known 'debt trap diplomacy' would ensnare Bangladesh as in the case of Sri Lanka and African nations, further complicating Dhaka's relations with New Delhi.
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