Karnataka Opinion Poll: Congress may emerge single largest party, but may fell short of majority

The survey findings showed, Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah leading the list with 32.2 per cent respondents wishing to see him as the next CM, followed by 26.83 per cent favouring the current incumbent Basavaraj Bommai. 16.37 per cent opted for JD(S) leader and former CM H D Kumaraswamy, while 10.97 pc favoured BJP leader and former CM B S Yeddyurappa. Only seven per cent preferred Congress leader DK Shivkumar for the CM post.

The opinion poll survey was carried out by CNX among 11,200 respondents (5,620 males and 5,580 females) in 112 out of a total of 224 seats. The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view demographic, professional and migration dimensions.

Caste and community-wise projections show, Congress may get 75.3 per cent of Kuruba votes, 15.11 per cent Lingayat votes, 17.57 per cent Vokkaliga votes, 40.56 SC votes, 34.58 per cent OBC votes, 42.35 per cent ST votes, and a whopping 78 per cent Muslim votes.

On the other hand, BJP may get 15.14 pc Kuruba votes, a whopping 75.8 pc Lingayat votes, 17.39 pc Vokkaliga votes, 39.6 pc SC votes, 51.7 pc OBC votes, 32.18 pc ST votes and only 2.07 pc votes. The projection show JD(S) may get 56 per cent Vokkaliga votes.

Out of the 224 assembly seats in Karnataka, the Congress may win around 105 seats (25 more than 2018) and emerge as the single largest party in the upcoming elections but is likely to fell short of the absolute majority. The BJP could face a setback and may win 85 seats (19 less than 2018) while JD(S) may bag 32 seats (a loss of 5 from 2018), according to the India TV-CNX opinion poll.

The Janata Dal (Secular) may emerge as the single largest party in the Old Mysore region which has 62 seats. The JD-S could win around 28 seats, one more from 2018, the Congress may win 26 seats while BJP may get around 7 seats 7, 8 less from the previous election, according to the India TV-CNX opinion poll.

Around 30 per cent of the respondents feel that BJP did the right thing to remove BS Yediyurappa, 51 per cent are of the view that it wasn't the right decision while 19 per cent didn't have any opinion.

In the Bombay-Karnataka region which has a total of 50 seats, the BJP may win around 29 seats, Congress may get 20, JD(S) may bag one seat while others may not be able to open their accounts, according to India TV-CNX opinion poll.

According to the India TV-CNX opinion poll, BJP may win 15 seats in the Coastal Karnataka region and may emerge as the single largest party, the Congress may win around 4 seats while JD(S) and others may fail to open their accounts.

According to the India TV-CNX opinion poll, BJP may win 13 seats in the Central Karnataka region, Congress may get 8, while JD(S) and others may not be able to open their accounts. The region has a total of 21 seats.

46 per cent of the respondents feel that they were not satisfied with the performance of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, 26 per cent have an opinion that his performance was satisfactory and 28 per cent felt that his performance was excellent, according to India TV-CNX Opinion Poll.

According to the India TV-CNX opinion poll, 17 per cent of the respondents feel that unemployment will be an issue in the upcoming election, 25 per cent are of the view that inflation is an issue, 22 per cent felt that corruption issue may impact the polls, 15 per cent said that development will be an issue.

The Congress may emerge as the single largest party with 32 seats an addition of 11 more from 2018 in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, BJP may win 6 seats 6, and JD(S) may get 2 seats, according to the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. This region has a total of 40 seats.

According to the India TV-CNX opinion poll, BJP may get 15 seats in the Greater Bengaluru region, 4 more than in 2018, the Congress may also get 15 seats (2 less than 2018), and Janata Dal-Secular - JD(S) may win two seats, a loss of two from previous elections.

46 per cent of the respondents feel that Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra may have an impact in the Karnataka elections, 44 per cent felt that it won't have any impact while 10 per cent didn't have any opinion, according to India TV-CNX opinion poll survey.

According to the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, 78 per cent of the Muslim votes may support the Congress party, 13 per cent may go with the JD(S), BJP may get 2 per cent support while 7 per cent may side of others.

According to the India TV-CNX opinion poll, 29 per cent of the respondents feel that Congress may face a heavy loss after it promised to ban Bajrang Dal in its manifesto, 41 per cent are of the view that it may face some loss, 24 per cent said that it may not face any loss while 6 per cent didn't have any opinion.

According to India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, 35 per cent of the respondents believe that PM Modi's aggressive campaign will make a difference in the forthcoming election, 21 per cent feel that it will make little impact, while 30 per cent are of view that it won't make any difference.

India TV-CNX conducted the survey between May 1 and May 6. The opinion poll has a sample size of 11,200 with respondents from 112 constituencies. Out of this, 5,620 were male respondents and 5,580 female.

The stage is set in Karnataka as it goes for assembly elections 2023 on May 10. With just three days left for the polls, India TV-CNX have conducted an opinion poll to gauge the mood of the voters in the poll-bound state. Stay tuned for all the updates.