Karnataka results & Lok Sabha election 2024: The Congress is set to form the government with a thumping victory over the ruling Bharatiya Janta Party in Karnataka. The Congress was striding forward with leads in 136 seats while the BJP was ahead in 64 in the southern state, according to Election Commission of India trends, as votes were counted on Saturday for an election widely seen as a litmus test for both parties ahead of the 2024 parliamentary polls. The third player- JD(S) which claimed to be a kingmaker in the state citing its last performance in 2018 assembly election, has not been seen in the same position as it is leading only in 20 constituencies.
With a much-needed victory tantalisingly close in the crucial southern state, early celebrations broke out at the Opposition Congress headquarters in Bengaluru and Delhi. BJP leaders, hoping to break a 38-year jinx of Karnataka not voting an incumbent to power, conceived a major debacle ahead of Lok Sabha 2024.
The victory of Congress will boost its position to negotiate seat-sharing and it will have a huge implication to the Lok Sabha election 2024.
Here are some possible implications for upcoming LS elections-
Lok Sabha seats in the south: The debacle of BJP made the southern pitch tougher for the saffron party. Even in the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah era when BJP seems formidable in the Indian politics, the south citadel remains a tough challenge for the party. Karnataka was an exceptional state in the south where people hailed RSS-BJP's ideology. But after losing Karnataka, the south becomes 'BJP-mukta' (the term coined by BJP for Congress (Congress-mukta) post-2014 landslide victory). The region sends 130 MPS out of a total of 543 seats to the Lok Sabha.
States- seats
- Karnataka- 28
- Andhra Pradesh- 25
- Telangana- 17
- Tamil Nadu- 39
- Kerala- 20
- Puducherry- 1
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election BJP bagged only 21 seats in the region and the tally marginally improved to 29 in 2019.
Karnataka & BJP's performance: Karnataka was the best turf for the saffron party even in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP has been the number one party in the last few General Elections in state.
- 2004- 18 seats
- 2009- 19
- 2014-17
- 2019- 25
The numbers tell the story what losing Karnataka means for BJP. Karnataka has been the epicenter of the motivation and energy for the party cadre in the south.
Rahul Gandhi: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is the biggest beneficiary of the Karnataka results when it comes to national politics. Now, his party will give all the credit to Gandhi and his 'Bharat Jodo Yatra'. Gandhi-led padayatra covered over 500 km in around 3 weeks in the state. The timing of the victory goes in the favor of Gandhi. Ahead of General Election 2024, such an impactive victory gives him immunity from the critics' attack.
Revival of UPA: As Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is on a mission to unite dispersed Opposition against BJP, the Karnataka results make things easier for him to convince those parties ( KCR-led BRS, Mamata Banerjee-led TMC and Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP) which are reluctant to make an alliance with Congress. The results will also attract new partners for UPA.
Morale booster for Congress: Karnataka fortress win followed by recent Himachal Pradesh victory provided a much-needed morale booster to Congress cadres. The results provided a new lease of life after a series of debacles at the hand of the BJP. In both states, there was a direct fight between Congress and BJP.
BJP Vs Congress: The results also broke the myth that BJP does better where it faces a direct fight with Congress. After 2014 debacle, Congress lost one by another almost all big states to BJP. Subsequently, a myth was created that Congress is vulnerable to BJP. It was also proved in several state elections. That is why regional allies always show reluctance to give more seats to Congress. Now, Congress may get its 'big brother' position in the national politics.
For BJP: The debacle is an alarming call for the saffron party in the south that it can't bank on 'communal cards'. And 'brand Modi' solely can't pull through in the region.
