India TV-CNX survey: National Conference can emerge as single largest party if J&K assembly polls are held now

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A state wide survey in J&K conducted by India TV-CNX recently clearly indicates that former chief minister Omar Abdullah-led National Conference can emerge as the single largest party, if assembly elections are held now in Jammu & Kashmir. 

The survey says, NC can win 31 assembly seats, while BJP can win 23 seats, followed by Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which can win 16 seats. Congress has chances of winning only seven seats, with ten seats going to ‘Others’.  

‘Others’ include independents, J&K National Panthers Party and Sajjad Lone’s J&K People’s Conference.

Read Also | Jammu and Kashmir Opinion Poll: Major losses predicted for PDP, Congress in Assembly polls; massive gain for NC

In the 2014 J&K assembly elections, PDP had emerged as the single largest party winning 28 seats, followed by BJP 25 seats, National Conference 15 and Congress 12 seats. Seven seats went to Independents and ‘Others’ in the 87-seat assembly. 

Vote share wise, National Conference may garner 26.94 per cent, BJP may get 26.1 pc, PDP may get 15.63 pc, and Congress may get 16 pc votes. There may be a 15.72 pc jump in NC’s vote share compared to its performance in the last 2014 assembly elections.

In 2014 assembly polls, BJP had scored 32.65 pc, Congress 23.07 pc, PDP 20.72 pc and NC had polled 11.22 pc votes.  

This time, region-wise, National Conference may do well in North Kashmir  and South Kashmir.

In North Kashmir, NC may win 12 out of total 25 seats, followed by PDP in seven seats, Congress in two, and four seats may go to ‘Others’. 

In South Kashmir, NC may win 10 out of 21 seats, followed by PDP in seven seats, Congress in one, and three seats may go to ‘Others’. 

In Jammu region, BJP may win 21 out of 37 seats, followed by NC (9), and two each by PDP and Congress. The remaining three seats in Jammu region may go to ‘Others’. 

In Ladakh region, BJP and Congress may share two seats each out of a total of four. 

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If Lok Sabha elections are held now in J&K, BJP and NC may win two parliamentary seats each, and Congress and PDP may win one seat each, out of a total of six LS seats. In 2014 LS polls, BJP and PDP had shared three seats each.

Today’s telecast by India TV was focussed only on Jammu & Kashmir. The India TV-CNX opinion poll survey was conducted between October 25 and November 12 in J&K. 

Watch:  National Conference can emerge as single largest party if J&K assembly polls are held now