NDA may get thin majority with 275 seats in LS elections
The National Democratic Alliance at the Centre, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may get a thin majority with 275 seats, only three seats more than the magic mark, in the Lok Sabha elections, says the latest India TV-CNX pre-poll survey.
BJP's tally may fall from present 282 to 230 seats, 42 short of the midway mark of 272 in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, says the opinion poll telecast this evening on the news channel. Congress tally may jump from 44 in 2014 to 97 this time, three less than the three-digit figure.
In the state assembly polls being held concurrently, the ruling Biju Janata Dal is going to retain power in Odisha and is projected to win 100 out of a total of 147 seats. The opposition YSR Congress is expected to storm to power in AP and is projected to win 100 out of a total of 175 assembly seats, says the India TV-CNX survey.
Projected break-up for Odisha assembly polls: Biju Janata Dal 100, BJP 31, Congress 9, Others 17. Total 147.
Andhra Pradesh assembly polls projected break-up: YSR Congress 100, Telugu Desam Party 45, Congress 4, BJP 3, Others 23. Total 175.
The survey was conducted between March 24 and 31 in all the 543 parliamentary constituencies of India, among a total voter sample of 65,160 respondents. These included 34,272 males and 30,888 females.
The survey gives a projection for NDA win in 275 seats, followed by Congress-led UPA in 147 seats, and 'Others' including SP, BSP, TMC, TRS, regional parties and independents projected to win in 121 seats.
NDA includes BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, AIADMK, Janata Dal(U), LJP, PMK and other regional parties, while UPA includes Congress, DMK, TDP, JD(S), RJD, JMM, NCP, National Conference, IUML, and other smaller parties.
'Others' include Samajwadi Party, BSP, Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independents.
In the NDA kitty totalling 275 seats, BJP may win 230 seats, Shiv Sena 13, AIADMK 10, JD(U) nine, Akali Dal two, PMK two, LJP 3, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.
In the UPA tally of 126 seats, the Congress may win 97, DMK 16, Lalu Yadav's RJD eight, TDP seven, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.
The crucial list of 'Others' is led by Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress projected to win 28 seats, Samajwadi Party 15, Mayawati's BSP 14, YSR Congress 18, Telangana Rashtra Samithi 12, Biju Janata Dal 14, Left Front eight, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.
The BJP, post-air strike, is projected to make a clean sweep of all seven LS seats in Delhi.
State wise break up of seats prediction:
Uttar Pradesh: BJP 40, BSP 16, SP 18, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.
Uttarakhand: BJP 3, Congress 2. Total 5.
Rajasthan: BJP 17, Congress 8. Total 25.
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 28, BJP 12, Cong 1, LF 1. Total 42.
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 6, Congress 1. Total 21.
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 21, Congress 8, Total 29.
Chhattisgarh: BJP 3, Congress 8, Total 11.
Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 2, AAP 1, BJP 1, Total 13.
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10.
Bihar: BJP 14, RJD 8, JD(U) 9, Congress 3, LJP 3, RLSP 1, HAM 1, VIP 1. Total 40.
Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 3. Total 14.
Gujarat : BJP 24, Congress 2. Total 26.
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1, Total 4.
Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 13, Congress 7, NCP 6, Others 1. Total 48.
Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0, Total 2.
Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-5.Total 39.
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 18, TDP 7. Total 25.
Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 12, AIMIM 1, Congress 4, Total 17.
Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2, Total 28.
Kerala: UDF 14, LDF 5, BJP 1, Total 20.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1. Total 6.
Assam: BJP 5, AIUDF 2, Congress 5, Others 2. Total 14.
Other North East states: BJP 4, Congress 4, NPP 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Delhi: BJP 7. Total 7.
Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6.
The final partywise projections:
BJP 230, Congress 97, Trinamool Congress 28, YSR Congress 18, SP 15, BSP 14, DMK 16, AIADMK 10, TRS 12, Left Front 8, JD(U) 9, NCP 6, RJD 8, Shiv Sena 13, BJD 14, smaller parties and Ind remaining seats. Total 543
The survey covered both residential and business areas, remote and key localities, including upper middle class colonies, and the sample respondents came from all walks of life, including cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, petty shopkeepers, mechanics, medical practitioners, auto-taxi drivers, real estate dealers, etc. The error margin has been kept at +/-2.5 per cent.
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