IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll: 42% voters prefer Narendra Modi as PM in UP, West Bengal and Odisha; Rahul Gandhi way behind at 19%

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The 2019 Lok Sabha elections are still a few months away but political tussle is already heating up with Assembly elections in five states - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Mizoram. The Assembly polls in these five states are being considered as semi-final ahead of the mega final likely to be held in April-May 2019. 

What if the general elections are held today? Who will India vote for if Lok Sabha elections are held today -  Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi or some one else?  Will Modi magic work again in Uttar Pradesh? Will Mamata Banerjee display her might in West Bengal once again? Can Naveen Patnaik deliver spectacular performance in Odisha again? 

To gauge the mood of the nation, CNX, a Delhi  based research and survey agency conducted a series of Opinion Polls for IndiaTV. 

Highlights of IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll:

07:25 pm: NDA may win 44 out of 143 seats in UP, WB, Odisha if  SP, BSP, Congress join hands in Uttar Pradesh; Congress 10, SP 21, BSP 18, TMC 27, Left 05, BJD 16, others 02

07:23 pm: NDA may win 58 out of 143 seats in UP, WB, Odisha in absence of SP-BSP-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh; Congress 04, SP 16, BSP 15, TMC 27, Left 05, BJD 16, Others 2

Who is most preferred PM for 2019 LS Polls?

07:20 pm: Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee get 11% vote each for PM post, 6% voters support Akhilesh Yadav

07:18 pm: 42% voters prefer Narendra Modi as PM in UP, West Bengal and Odisha; Rahul Gandhi way behind at 19% 

Odisha (LS seats-21)

07:11 pm: BJP may get 29% votes(Up from 22% in 2014) while BJD may get 44% votes (down from 45% in 2014), Congress 22% (down from 26% in 2014) and others 5% (down from 7% in 2014)

07:08 pm: BJP may win 5 seats, BJD may get 16 seats

West Bengal (LS seats-42)

07:00 pm: BJP may get 8 seats (up from 2 seats in 2014), TMC 27 seats (down from 34 seats in 2014), Left 05 seats (up from 2 seats in 2014) and Congress 2 seats (down from 4 seats in 2014)

06:58 pm: TMC may get 36% votes (down from 40% in 2014), BJP 28% (17% gain over 2014), Left 24% (down from 30% in 2014) and Congress 7% (down from 10% in 2014)

Uttar Pradesh (LS seats-80)

Scenario III: If Congress is not part of SP-BSP grand-alliance

06:33 pm: SP-BSP to face major losses if Congress not part of grand-alliance

06:30 pm: NDA to get 45 seats, SP-BSP 33 seats, Congress 2 seats

Scenario II : When there is SP-BSP-Congress alliance 

06:17 pm: BJP may get 30 seats, BSP 18, SP 21, Congress 8 and others 03 seats

06:15 pm: NDA may go down to 31 from 73. Grand-alliance may get 49 seats (Up from 07 in 2014)

Scenario I : When there is no SP-BSP-Congress alliance 

06:05 pm: BJP may get 39 seats, SP and BSP 9 seats each, Congress 5 and others 2 seats

06:03 pm: BJP may get 39% votes, a decrease of 4 %

06:02 pm: 31 % people to vote on work done by Modi govt

06:00 pm: India TV to predict 2019 LS poll results under various circumstances. What if SP-BSP alliance takes place and what if there is no grand-alliance

IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll: How the survey was conducted

1) Finding out the opinions of the man on the street was the major concern of the survey. A quantitative survey using a structured questionnaire was  administered randomly to 17100 men and women from section A and section B households, in the  age  group of 18 to 60. 

2) The survey team visited 171 parliamentary constituencies from  six  states  including  Uttar  Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Punjab and Haryana going deep into bylanes and meeting people from all walks of life.

3) The  respondents were selected randomly keeping in view the demographic, professional   and migration dimensions. On the whole, the sample respondents came from all walks of  life.

4) Number of male respondents: 8732. Number of female respondents: 8368. Date of survey conducted: October 25 to November 12,2018.

5) The results are subject to a margin of error 2.5 percent.