India TV-CNX Opinion Poll: NDA likely to get 295 seats. Check statewise projection

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Latest news: NDA likely to get 295 seats. Check statewise projection

The National Democratic Alliance at the Centre, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may get a clear majority with 295 seats, 23 seats more than the magic mark,  in the Lok Sabha elections, says the final opinion poll by India TV-CNX.

BJP's tally may fall from present 282 to 240 seats, 32 short of  the midway mark of 272 in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, says the final opinion poll. Congress tally may jump from 44 in 2014 to 84 this time.

The final opinion poll was conducted between April 1 and April 6 in 305 out of the total 543 parliamentary constituencies of India, among a total voter sample of 36,600 respondents.  These included 19,125 men and 17,475 women. 

The opinion poll gives a projection for NDA win in 295 seats, followed by Congress-led UPA in 127 seats, and 'Others' including SP, BSP, TMC, TRS, regional parties and independents projected to win in 121 seats.

NDA includes BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, AIADMK, Janata Dal(U), LJP, PMK and other regional parties, while UPA includes Congress, DMK, TDP, JD(S), RJD, JMM, NCP, National Conference, IUML, and other smaller parties. 

'Others' include Samajwadi Party, BSP,  Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independents.  

In the NDA kitty totalling 295 seats, BJP may win 240 seats, Shiv Sena 15, AIADMK 10, JD(U) 13, Akali Dal three, PMK two, LJP 3, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.

In the UPA tally of 127 seats, the Congress may win 84, DMK 16, Lalu Yadav's RJD five, TDP five, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.

The crucial list of 'Others' is led by Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress projected to win 29 seats, Samajwadi Party 15, Mayawati's BSP 13, YSR Congress 20, Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, Biju Janata Dal 13,  Left Front six, and rest by other regional and smaller parties.

The BJP, post-air strike, is projected to make a clean sweep of all seven LS seats in Delhi. 

State wise break up of seats prediction: 

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 46, BSP 13, SP 15, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.

Uttarakhand: BJP 4, Congress 1. Total 5. 
Rajasthan: BJP 19, Congress 6. Total 25. 
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 29, BJP 12,  Cong 1, LF 0. Total 42. 
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 13, BJP 7, Congress 1. Total 21. 
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29. 
Chhattisgarh: BJP 5, Congress 6, Total 11. 
Punjab: Congress 10, Akali Dal 3. Total 13. 
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10. 
Bihar: BJP 15, RJD 5, JD(U) 13, Congress 2, LJP 3, RLSP 1, VIP 1. Total 40.
Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 2, AJSU 1.  Total 14.
Gujarat : BJP 24, Congress 2.  Total 26. 
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1, Total 4. 
Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 15, Congress 6, NCP 6. Total 48.
Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1. Total 2. 
Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 4, BJP 1, PMK 2, Others 6. Total 39.
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 20, TDP 5.  Total 25. 
Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17. 
Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2, Total 28. 
Kerala: UDF 16, LDF 4. Total 20.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1. Total 6. 
Assam: BJP 6, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Others 2. Total 14. 
Other North East states: BJP 6, Congress 1, NPP 2, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Delhi: BJP 7.  Total 7. 
Other Union Territories:  BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6. 

Final partywise opinion poll projections: 

BJP 240, Congress 84, Trinamool Congress 29, YSR Congress 20, SP 15, BSP 13, DMK 16, AIADMK 10, TRS 14, Left Front 6, JD(U) 13, NCP 6, RJD 5, Shiv Sena 15, Biju Janata Dal 13, smaller parties and Ind remaining seats. Total 543 

The final opinion poll was conducted through interviews at 12 polling stations in each of the 305 selected Lok Sabha constituencies. 10 respondents were selected randomly from each polling station. The error margin has been kept at +/-2.5 per cent.

WATCH INDIA TV-CNX OPINION POLL: