India's FY21 GDP to contract 7.7%, says Economic Survey

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India's GDP is estimated to contract by 7.7 per cent during the current fiscal, said the Economic Survey 2020-21 on Friday. The document which was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha in its debt simulations for worst-case debt analysis assumed the contraction at (-) 7.7 per cent.

According to the survey, the real growth rate for FY22 was assumed at 11.5 per cent based on IMF estimates. The document prepared by the Finance Ministry's Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian said general government debt for FY20 is taken as 73.8 per cent of the GDP.

"The primary deficit for FY21 is assumed to be 6.8 per cent of GDP... Primary deficit for FY22 is assumed to be 2.5 per cent of GDP.

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"The declining trajectory of primary deficit is assumed to reach 1.5 per cent of GDP by FY24, and it is assumed to stay at 1.5 per cent thereafter," it added.

Besides, the survey cited that nominal interest rate is assumed to be 6 per cent.

"As on January 26, 2021, we estimate the weighted average cost of borrowing using the weights of general government borrowing across maturities to be 6 per cent.

"Inflation is taken as 5 per cent, i.e. mid-point of the range of 4 per cent - 6 per cent."

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