Mumbai: Prices of pulses are expected to remain low in the next few months following good monsoons, high acreage, lower hikes in minimum support price and moderate demand, according to a report by rating agency Crisil.
“Pulses inflation is likely to stay low over the next few months thanks to good monsoons, higher acreage, lower hikes in minimum support prices and moderate demand,” the Crisil report said.
Food inflation in the country has been on a steady uptrend this fiscal, rising to 18.2 per cent in October with the surge in prices of rice, fruits and vegetables and animal protein as the primary drivers of inflation. However, contrary to perception, not all food items have seen a spike in prices and pulses actually saw a decline, it said.
“Even if prices see uptick in the months ahead, overall pulses inflation in the near future is unlikely to surge into double-digit growth as seen in the past. In fact, inflation will most likely remain significantly low in the next 12 months as the rabi crop - which forms over 60 per cent of total pulses production in the country - enters the market,” it added.
Along with pulses, sugar and edible oils prices also saw a declining trend in October.
Overall protein inflation (which includes meat, eggs, fish, milk and pulses) has fallen steeply to an average 7.3 per cent this fiscal, compared with an average 11 per cent in the past two years, the report said.
However, the decline in pulses has been sharper and they have shed an average 12 per cent in the last four months. In contrast, inflation in pulses stayed in the 11-35 per cent range for the larger part of 2012-13 and has been falling since August 2012, when it flirted with the 35 per cent mark, the report said.
Beyond that, however, inflation in pulses will depend on demand revival and on whether farmers continue to increase production, it added.
