New Delhi, Aug 18: India's exports are unlikely to achieve the USD 360 billion target for this fiscal and will be about USD 334 billion, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said on Friday.
The PMEAC, which is headed by C Rangarajan, said the imports would touch USD 515 billion, leaving a trade deficit of USD 181 billion or 9.7 per cent of expected GDP.
“In 2012-13, the Council expects that merchandise exports will be about USD 334 billion, which is quite a bit lower than the target of USD 360 billion indicated by the Commerce Ministry, but would nevertheless be 7.8 per cent more than that in 2011-12,” PMEAC said in its ‘Economic Outlook for 2012-13'.
It said the lower trade deficit is expected to ease the Current Account Deficit (CAD) down to 3.6 per cent of the expected GDP.
“The CAD projected for 2012-13 is thus USD 67.1 billion. There is a potential upside to the CAD on account of the balances on net invisibles to do better than has been projected. However, offsetting this is the potential of higher petroleum prices and continuance of gold imports t levels higher than projected,” it said.
The council said a change in the composition of both merchandise exports and imports is expected.
Overall, refinery throughput is expected to be higher by 5 million tonne and domestic crude oil output may also increase by about 2 million tonne in the current fiscal, it said.
“However, on account of stronger domestic consumption, the net surplus refined products available for exports is likely to be lower this year by about 3 million tonne,” it added.
