The coming Budget could see the government set the fiscal deficit target in the range of 3.3-3.4 percent of GDP for the financial year 2017-18, research reports have said.
"We think that the government will have to tread very carefully between the need for stimulating demand in a weak economic environment after demonetization and continuing on the path of fiscal consolidation. We expect the government to Budget for a fiscal deficit target of 3.3 percent of GDP, 30 basis points higher than planned in the government's medium-term fiscal consolidation program," Goldman Sachs said in its research report.
The Budget for the financial year 2017-18 is to be presented on February 1.
It said the lower reduction in fiscal deficit is to stimulate demand in a weak economic environment post demonetisation announced in early November.
An SBI internal research report, Ecowrap, has pegged in a "fiscal deficit target of Rs 5.75 lakh crores for the financial year 2017-18, at 3.4 percent of GDP." Fiscal deficit for the financial year 2016-17 is Budgeted at 3.5 percent.
The Goldman Sachs report said the is likely to meet its Budget deficit target of 3.5 percent of GDP for the financial year 2016-17 due to better-than-expected tax revenue growth and via some adjustment to capital spending.
Higher revenues from duties on oil (0.3pp higher than Budgeted) should help the government achieve its target for the current financial year, it said.
Additional income tax revenues from the amnesty on undisclosed income, ending in September 2017, are also likely to boost government tax revenue (0.1pp of GDP), it said.
"We think that higher-than-expected tax revenues would offset any shortfall on the non-tax side, including telecom spectrum receipts and privatization proceeds," the Goldman Sachs report said.
It expects government capital spending to be slightly lower in current financial year compared to what was Budgeted - 1.5 percent of GDP as against 1.6 percent Budgeted.
Goldman Sachs expects tax revenue to grow by over 16 percent in the financial year 2017-18 and support government finances.
The SBI research report expects a 13 percent growth in tax revenues (gross) in the financial year 2017-18, driven primarily by robust growth in corporation tax (28.8 percent).
Capital receipts, on the other hand may rise marginally due to low disinvestment target compared to the current fiscal over-optimistic target of Rs 56,500 crore, Ecowrap said.
"We expect the government would keep a realistic disinvestment target of Rs 45,000 crore for the financial year 2017-18," Ecowrap said.
(With PTI inputs)
