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Budget 2025: From GDP to fiscal deficit to GST, here are key numbers to be watched

Union Budget 2025: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to present her 8th consecutive budget. Key updates on fiscal deficit, GDP growth, tax relief for the middle class, capex, and disinvestment targets.

REPRESENTATIVE PICTURE
REPRESENTATIVE PICTURE Image Source : India TV
Edited By: Nitin Kumar @Niitz1
New DelhiPublished: , Updated:

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the eighth budget of her consecutive term. There are expectations that she will soon give relief to the middle-class taxpayers. Since 2019, she has changed over from the traditional red leather briefcase to the ceremonial red "bahi-khata," and in recent years, the government has adopted a paperless budget presentation format.

Fiscal Deficit and debt roadmap

  • Fiscal Deficit: Projected at 4.9 per cent of GDP for FY25, and the government has set a target to bring it down to 4.5 per cent by FY26. The markets will monitor the updates on the fiscal consolidation roadmap.
  • Debt-to-GDP ratio: The central government debt was at 57 per cent of GDP in 2024, and the government has targeted to bring it down to 60 per cent by FY27.

Capital expenditure and borrowing

  • Capex: The budget for FY25 has been estimated at Rs 11.1 lakh crore. Election time may delay final spending. Expect continued capex focus in FY26.
  • Gross borrowing: Estimated at Rs 14.01 lakh crore for FY25. Lower RBI dividends may shape borrowing strategies in FY26.

Revenue and tax projections

  • Total tax revenue: Projected at Rs 38.40 lakh crore for FY25.
  • Direct taxes: Expected Rs 22.07 lakh crore
  • Indirect taxes: Estimated Rs 16.33 lakh crore.
  • GST collections: Projected at Rs 10.62 lakh crore for FY25, though the last few months have been slower. FY26 projections will be important.

Economic growth and inflation outlook

  • Nominal GDP growth: Projected at 10.5 per cent in FY25, with real GDP growth at 6.4 per cent. FY26 projections will give an idea of inflationary trends.

Dividends and disinvestment targets

Dividends: FY25 projections included:

  • Rs 2.33 lakh crore from RBI and financial institutions.
  • Rs 56,260 crore from Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs).
  • Disinvestment and Asset Monetisation: The target for FY25 was Rs 50,000 crores. In FY26, the future plans for monetisation will be articulated.

The Union Budget 2025, therefore, will present a fiscal consolidation plan, focus on infrastructure expenditure, and create an economic growth trajectory for post-election India.

Also read | PM Kisan 19th installment update: Rs 2000 to be credited to farmers' accounts soon

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