The Bihar politics, which has been extremely volatile for the past several years, has witnessed lots of twists and turns with the formation and destruction of numerous coalitions. However, will the dynamic changes in the political scenario in the state affect the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?
According to the latest India TV-CNX Opinion Poll conducted on Saturday (October 7), the BJP is predicted to get half of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state, i.e. 20 seats. Its ally LJP (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan is expected to get 3 seats. RLJP is shown to win 1 seat. The NDA in total may get 24 seats out of the total 40 in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar.
RJD is shown to win 7 seats, while Congress may win 2 seats. Nitish Kumar’s JDU is predicted to win 7 seats, suffering a loss of 9 seats from the previous elections in which it won 16 seats. The Opposition alliance is therefore predicted to win 16 seats.
Prediction of vote share
As per the latest Opinion Poll by India TV, the BJP is predicted to get 35 per cent votes while its ally LJP (Ram Vilas) will get 7 per cent votes. RJD is predicted to lead the vote share in the INDIA bloc with 19 per cent votes with JDU being the second-highest vote-sharing party. Congress stands third with 8 per cent votes. Others are expected to get 14 per cent votes.
In total, the NDA is predicted to get 42 per cent votes while the INDIA bloc is expected to get 44 per cent vote share, which successfully counters the BJP challenge in Bihar.
The Bihar government recently revealed the data of caste census in the state, which made chorus in the political corridors regarding benefitting the ruling JDU-RJD government. However, according to the Opinion Poll, a majority of Dalit community’s votes is likely to go the NDA way. 75 per cent of Dalit Paswan’s votes are likely to go to the NDA while 12 per cent may go to the Opposition bloc. 65 per cent of Dalit Musahar are likely to vote for the NDA while the I.N.D.I.A bloc is predicted to get 19 per cent votes of the community.
What was the equation in 2019 Lok Sabha elections?
Nitish Kumar’s JDU had contested the 2019 general elections as part of the NDA. The BJP had won 17 seats while JDU had emerged victorious on 16. Lok Janshakti Party (led by Ram Vilas Paswan) had won 6 seats. The NDA had won 39 out of 40 seats in the previous general elections in the state.
The Mahagathbandhan which comprised of RJD and Congress had won only one seat.
The reconciliation of Nitish Kumar with the Opposition last year may prove harmful for the BJP which is aiming to bag all 40 seats in the NDA pocket.
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