US Open 2020 women's singles final Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Azarenka: Preview, numbers, strategy, prediction

Most previews on the women's singles draw for US Open 2020 a fortnight back centered around Serena Williams' chance at a 24th major, and a possible Naomi Osaka obstacle in the final. And until deep into the second week of the tournament, the match-up seemed highly plausible. But 2020 being 2020, the legend was left stupified in the semifinals by an unforeseen force in the form yesteryear star. Rising from the ashes of her old glory, Victoria Azarenka scripted the major upset, hence setting up a blockbuster final against rising-star Osaka.

Head-to-Head tie...

The two have met thrice in court with Osaka leading the head-to-head tie 2-1 while also winning their most recent battle, at the 2019 French Open. The Belarussian won their first encounter 6-1, 6-1 in the third round of 2016 Australian Open where Osaka had made her Grand Slam main draw debut. It was also their only hardcourt battle. In the next meeting, in the first round of Rome Masters in 2018, Osaka got the better of a hapless Azarenka 6-0, 6-3. Their third and last meeting, in the second round of Roland Garros 2019, their second Grand Slam meeting, was a more nail-biting one with Osaka coming back from a set down to beat Azarenka 4-6, 7-5, 6-3. 

In numbers...

7 years 5 days Last time Azarenka had reached a Grand Slam final was in 2013 US Open. This gap of seven years and five days in making her second consecutive Grand Slam final is now the second-longest in women's singles in Open Era after Venus Williams' 7 years and 2017 days (Wimbledon 2009 and 2017 Australian Open). 

5 Azarenka is the fifth unseeded women's singles player in Open Era to have reached the US Open final after 1997 runner-up Venus Williams, 2009 champion Kim Clijsters, 2015 runner-up Roberta Vinci and 2017 champion Sloane Stephens.

2 Grand Slam titles Both the finalists have two majors to their name. Azarenka is the winner of the Australian Open title in 2012 and 2013 while Osaka won 2018 US Open and 2019 Australian Open. This is the first time since 1967 US Open that the women's singles final will be played between two-time major champions. Azarenka is however 2-2 in Grand Slam finals having lost on two occasions in US Open previously, both to Serena, in 2012 and 2013. Overall, she has a 21-17 record in finals. Osaka has a 2-0 record in major finals and has an unbeaten record in Grand Slams after reaching the quarterfinals. She, however, has a 5-3 record in finals.

5 Osaka stands on the verge of becoming the fifth woman to win her first three Grand Slam finals, joining the club of Virginia Wade (US Open 1968, Australian Open 1972, Wimbledon 1977), Monica Seles (Roland Garros 1990, Australian Open 1991, Roland Garros 1991), Lindsay Davenport (US Open 1998, Wimbledon 1999, Australian Open 2000) and Jennifer Capriati (Australian Open 2001, Roland Garros 2001, Australian Open 2002).

3 Both the stalwarts will be aiming to win their third major and hence equalling the tally of Angelique Kerber for the fourth-most Grand Slam titles among active players. Serena leads the list with 24 majors followed by her sister Venus on seven and Clijsters on four. A win for Azarenka, who is now ranked 27, her highest since March 2017, will see her reach the No.11 spot in WTA rankings but a loss will guarantee a rise to the 14th spot. For Osaka, a third major will take her to the No.3 spot in WTA rankings and No.4 on defeat. 

4 Azarenka is looking to become the fourth woman in the Open era to win a Grand Slam title as a mother, joining the elite group of Margaret Court, Evonne Goolagong, and Clijsters. 

11-0 vs 10-0 Azarenka is now on an 11-match winning streak since landing in New York which includes the Cincinnati title last month. Since walkovers aren't officially counted as defeats, Osaka is on a 10-match winning streak, her second longest after her 14-0 record September 2019 and January 2020. 

Strategy...

Azarenka will look to complete her renaissance run with a third major on Saturday night at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre in New York and hope to emerge third time lucky in the US Open final. Her defensive game has to be top-notch against Osaka who has been impressively accurate through the last two weeks with minimal unforced errors. She will of course draw inspiration from her victory against Serena two nights back. Osaka's strength lies in her forehand and in her ability to hit strong cross-court returns on the forehand and that will be the area that Azarenka will look to avoid. The World No.27 can also exploit Osaka's weak second serve. Azarenka has won 69 percent of points on her opponent's second serve in this tournament. Against Serena it was 63. 

For Osaka, she will look to be cautious against Azarenka's deceptive backhand return. It's almost pre-meditated and her shoulder position allows her to return the ball on either direction with same pace and swing. 

Prediction:

Osaka, in three sets.