Australian Open 2020, men's singles final: Can Dominic Thiem dethrone 'King' Novak Djokovic in Melbourne?
Will Djokovic maintain his strong grip on the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday, or will Thiem inflict one of the greatest upsets and complete his dream run in Melbourne?
Unlike in women's singles, the one-half of the general prediction in the men's category has stood positive. As usual, the 'King' of Melbourne, Novak Djokovic has reached yet another Australian Open final, in search for an unprecedented eighth at the Rod Laver Arena. The other half of the prediction, however, had Rafael Nadal as the strongest possibility. But the summit clash will witness Djokovic going up against Nadal-slayer Dominic Thiem, in what will be his maiden Australian Open final appearance. The question is, will Djokovic maintain his strong grip on the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup, or will Thiem inflict one of the greatest upsets and complete his dream run in Melbourne?
'King' of Melbourne...
No surprises there! He has been playing another flawless campaign in Melbourne and has deservingly reached his 26th Grand Slam final and eighth in Australian Open. And en route, has dropped only one set, against Jan-Lenard Struff in his opener. Djokovic took down David Schwartzman in straight sets in the fourth round and cleverly negated big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic in the quarters before comfortably scripting an easy win against world no.3 Roger Federer in the semis.
If Djokovic wins, he will be lifting his 17th Grand Slam career title, and will stand two behind Rafael Nadal and three behind Federer. A loss will only imply a golden opportunity missed by the Serbian in the race to become the all-time great, but more so, the start of a new era in men's tennis.
The resurgent Austrian...
Not many expected Thiem to come this far into the tournament. But the natural clay-courter has dug deep to his reach his maiden Grand Slam final on a hard court and now stands as the strongest possibility to make that inroad in men's tennis, one which the Next Gen have been searching for long. The stage will be no new to Thiem as he has twice before reached the finals at Roland Garros only to be deceived by the King of Clay. Unfortunately, he now runs into the King of Melbourne.
“It’s unbelievable, twice in Roland Garros finals, twice facing Rafa,” he said. “Now facing Novak here, he’s the king of Australia, so I’m always facing the kings of the Grand Slams in these finals.”
Unlike Djokovic, Thiem hasn't had a very flawless outing in Melbourne. He played a five-setter against wild-card entrant Alex Bolt in the second round and played a set extra against Taylor Fritz in the third round before engaging in a raw physical battle against Nadal in the quarters, the game which brought put the best of Thiem. He displayed more of his forehand winners, infused a lot many backhand slices, and had won the long rallies even from baseline, hence outsmarting Nadal with his own medicine. A day later, Thiem engaged in another inseparable match against fellow Next Gen Alexander Zverev in the semis. It was this match which revealed his slow yet steady progress on hard courts. On the red dirt, he uses spin more often, stands inches behind the baseline and uses his one-handed backhand more often. On the hardcourt, he maintained a similar technique but has also looked for more forehand winners, which was clearly noticeable in the two tiebreakers he played against the lanky German.
Key statistics for Djokovic vs Thiem Australian Open final...
2) The Serbian has never lost a final at Australian Open and never lost a Grand Slam final since 2016's US Open loss to Stan Wawrinka. Overall, he is 16-9 in 25 Grand Slam finals in his career. Thiem lost both the Grand Slam finals he reached so far in his career.
3) Djokovic will be hoping to join the two other members of the Big Three in becoming only the third player ever to win a single Grand Slam event eight or more times, joining Nadal (Roland Garros, 12) and Federer (Wimbledon, 8).
5) A Djokovic upset on Sunday will imply that Thiem will become the first player to be born in the 90s to win a major and the second Austrian after former World No.1 Thomas Muster to win a Grand Slam.
6) Thiem is aiming to be only the second player after Wawrinka in 2014 to defeat both Nadal and Djokovic en route to a Grand Slam victory. The victory will also put him alongside the Swiss in the list of most Grand Slam wins against the Serb. Both will stand third after Nadal (9) and Federer (6).
7) Thiem will also join Ivan Lendl and Marat Safin in the third spot in the list of most appearances before winning the Australian Open title - seven for the trio.
| Stat | Novak Djokovic | Dominic Thiem |
| Break Points saved | 11 of 18 | 31 of 44 |
| Winners | 213 | 287 |
| Unforced errors | 131 | 213 |
| Aces | 70 | 57 |
| Tie-breakers | 9 of 17 | 23 of 37 |
| Baseline battles | 53 per cent | 53.5 per cent |
| 9+ shots | 61.4 per cent | 62.3 per cent |
Strategy:
Thiem has to put forth a flawless game against Djokovic, one he displayed against Nadal. His backhand slice, which he used more often than ever in the Zverev clash, will be key for the Austrian in sending the Serb back to the baseline before he could sprint to the net and play that forehand winner.
For Djokovic, he too has been impeccable with his service games so far and clocks a second serve around 165kmph. Moreover, his ability to convert defense into offence will be the one that Thiem has to be cautious about. Djokovic is also one of the greatest returners of the game. Even against Raonic, who was firing at 225kmph, he was standing on the baseline to float the ball back into play and neutralise the effect.