Will Narendra Modi's OBC background prove to be BJP's trump card in 2014?

New Delhi, Feb 18: The most interesting political question that is being hotly debated throughout the length and breadth of the country nowadays is – How will India vote if BJP finally decides to project Narendra Modi as its PM candidate and pits him directly against Rahul Gandhi in 2014 General Elections? Is there any electoral differentiator that has the potential of turning the tide in favour of Narendra Modi in 2014 General Elections? Or it's just going to be the repetition of old debates revolving around Modi's claims on development and Rahul Gandhi's counter attack on twin issues of secularism and Modi's brand of Hindutva?There is not even an iota of doubt that these topics will definitely be hotly debated. Narendra Modi is bound to play his development card as his track record on development has been widely recognized across India as well as abroad. Similarly, Rahul led Congress will definitely revive the perennial communal versus secular debate in order to ensure that the traditional vote-bank of Congress remains intact.But the trump card for Modi can be his OBC background. Narendra Modi is an OBC leader and belongs to the Ghanchi community of Gujarat that is equivalent to Teli caste of Northern India. Narendra Modi has never tried to encash his OBC lineage, primarily because he was a RSS pracharak and he was taught not to play up his caste affiliations but now he has to understand that politics is a different ball game altogether. It's a fact that electoral politics is guided by caste combinations to a great extent. Caste has played crucial role in Indian elections since independence. One can't forget the fact that Dr B R Ambedkar lost elections despite all the qualifications because of unfavorable caste arithmetic.OBC community constitutes around 40 percent of India's population according to the 2005-06 survey conducted by NSSO. In Tamil Nadu, they constitute around 72 percent of the population while in Bihar and Kerala, they are around 58 percent of the population. In UP, the most crucial state electorally, they are around 50 percent of the entire population.The OBCs have contributed immensely to the rise of BJP on political horizon in India. The most pertinent example was UP in 1990s when the BJP used to sweep elections in the state. It happened because BJP introduced a winning social engineering formula in the state. The leadership was handed over to Kalyan Singh, a powerful OBC leader, while the forward castes were brought under one umbrella on Hindutva plank . This combination of an OBC leader and robust support of forward castes proved to be a lethal combination and propelled BJP into power with a clear cut majority.Narendra Modi has the opportunity of repeating the history. He can become another Kalyan Singh for the BJP, this time on a national level. He can unite the OBCs across the country while the forward castes are already smitten by his strong Hindutva appeal. This can be a truly winning combination. Modi's OBC background is a trump card that the BJP can play to the hilt and it has the potential of shattering all hopes of Congress so far making a hat-trick is concerned.It's not that Modi does not realize this. In run up to Gujarat assembly elections, he cultivated a large number of OBC specific gatherings and succeeded in conveying the message that he is one of them. This astute move of Modi has played an important role in three consecutive victories of Modi in Gujarat.It's also not that Modi's rivals are not aware of this. Nitish Kumar,Modi's bête-noire and Bihar Chief Minister who also has Prime Ministerial ambitions, is fully aware of Modi's possible emergence as the most preferred PM candidate for OBCs across the country. It should be recalled that Kurmis, Nitish Kumar's own castemen, consider Sardar Patel as one of them and have high regard for Modi as he has always presented himself as true inheritor Patel's legacy. This is one reason why Nitish is not favourable towards Modi's PM candidature as it can result in his PM ambitions vanishing altogether.This is his biggest concern, even more than the fear of losing Muslim vote bank that constitutes around 16 percent of electorate in Bihar. As far as the BJP is concerned, it is very much possible that Modi will emege as the new Kalyan Singh for the party at the national party. If it happens then Modi will succed in creating history once again in 2014. He will be the first Gujarati leader to become the Prime Minister of the country. That, too, the first OBC leader from Gujarat.