New Delhi: When Delhi will be fighting its biggest battle, BJP will also have eye on Rajya Sabha elections from Jammu & Kashmir. It is expected that BJP may pick up two seats.
This year, the NDA it heads will add only two seats in Jammu and Kashmir, one each in Maharashtra and Puducherry and one nominated member in the Upper House.
Between now and 2019, when the Modi government's term ends, the NDA will just about cross the 100-seat mark in the House and that's in the best-case scenario. That will leave it well short of the halfway point in the Rajya Sabha, which has an optimum strength of 250.
Currently, the Opposition has a combined strength of at least 132 in an effective House of 243 members — including 69 of the Congress, the Samajwadi Party's 15, 12 of the Trinamool Congress, the JD(U)'s 12, the CPM's 9, 6 of the NCP, the CPI's 2, the National Conference's 2, the RJD 1, the JD(S) 1, the JMM 1, Kerala Congress-M 1 and INLD 1.
Besides this the House has 12 nominated members who owe their berths to the Manmohan Singh government, who are more likely to side with the Opposition than the ruling coalition.
As against this, the BJP (45) and its allies — Shiv Sena (3), Akali Dal (3), TDP (6), RPI-Athawale (1), All-India N Rangasamy Congress (1) and Nagaland People's Front (1) — add up to only 60 members.
As many as 42 MPs — belonging to the AIADMK (11), BSP (10), BJD (7), DMK (4), Independents and others (7), Telangana Rashtra Samithi (1), Sikkim Democratic Front (1) and Bodoland People's Front (1) — can swing either way.
Similarly, in Maharashtra, after the death last November of veteran Congress leader Murli Deora, one Rajya Sabha seat fell vacant. Reports suggest that it will be filled after Prime Minister Narendra Modi decides who else to induct into his Council of Ministers from the State. That seat will swell the BJP tally, unless the party decides to give it to its reluctant partner, the Shiv Sena.
By end-2015, the BJP's 45 Rajya Sabha MPs will swell to 47, plus one nominated member: its allies, the PDP, and the All India NR Congress, will add another three to the NDA. If the PDP-BJP alliance is lucky, the BJP might get another seat. In short, the NDA tally could go up by six – and at best seven – seats.
The 69-MP strong Congress will lose one seat each in Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra and Puducherry, gaining only one in Kerala. Only in 2016, the BJP could add 15 RS seats; if it wins Bihar, perhaps around 20.
