Why Paswan has returned to NDA fold after 12 years?

New Delhi: It was in 2002 that Ram Vilas Paswan had resigned from the Vajpayee government in the aftermath of Gujarat riots. He had jettisoned the NDA accusing BJP of playing communal politics. He was particularly livid with Narendra Modi for his alleged involvement in post-Godhra riots in Gujarat. After 12 years, Paswan has made a U-turn by making a comeback to the same NDA and under the leadership of the same Narendra Modi whom he had held responsible for his quitting the NDA fold. What is ironic is that Nitish Kumar who refused to break alliance with BJP in the aftermath of Gujarat riots as he had no problems with Narendra Modi, has now walked off the alliance citing Narendra Modi's elevation as BJP's PM candidate as the main reason behind his decision. On the other hand, Ram Vilas Paswan who left NDA because of Modi's continuation as Gujarat CM has today no qualms in returning to NDA under the leadership of the same Modi. So what has changed for Paswan in these 12 years that forced him to eat his words and accept the leadership of Narendra Modi? A closer look at Paswan's career would reveal that he is not stubbornly attached to any philosophy. He belongs to that league of politicians who believe that ideologies can be changed as per convenience. In 2005, Paswan was at the peak of his popularity in Bihar when he had got the keys to government formation. Paswan's party LJP had won 29 seats out of a total of 243 seats in Bihar assembly. The assembly results had thrown a fragmented assembly and both BJP and JD(U) had offered him to form the govt. Ram Vilas Paswan at that time had insisted on a Muslim Chief Minister and refused to play ball with either BJP or JD(U). With an eye on around 16 percent Muslim vote bank in Bihar, he wanted to position himself as the next messiah of Muslim community. He knew that with 29 seats he was not in a position to offer a stable government. He then thought about consolidating his standing in the Muslim community by insisting on a Muslim CM that even he knew, nobody was going to accept. Obviously, Paswan was positioning himself for the next assembly elections. But all his calculations went awry in the next assembly elections as Nitish Kumar in alliance with BJP romped home comfortably and formed the government in Bihar. The domination of Lalu Prasad in the state for 15 long years with Muslim–Yadav combination prompted many leaders including Paswan and Nitish to replicate the equation but they failed to realize that Lalu also had 11 percent of Yadav votes that made the M-Y combination formidable. Neither Paswan nor Nitish had that kind of vote bank following them. Paswan tried to compensate it through a combination of forward castes, Muslims and Dalits but failed miserably in his endeavor. By 2009, the flip-flop of Paswan had completely discredited him in the eyes of public, so much so that he lost his own election from Hajipur constituency. Hajipur is one constituency that is dominated by Yadav and Rajput voters. Paswan needed support of either of these two communities for victory but in 2009, both these castes refused to back Paswan for different reasons that resulted in Paswan's humiliating loss. Actually, people did not take his dalliances with Congress and RJD kindly and Paswan was brutally punished by the people of Bihar. Not a single candidate of LJP could reach Parliament in 2009. Lalu , keeping in mind Paswan's hold over his Paswan community votes, helped him reach the Rajya Sabha. After Nitish Kumar took over the reins of power in Bihar, he started playing his own game. As mentioned above, he was looking for a winning caste formula like Lalu's M-Y combination. Since Nish Kumar's own caste men are nowhere near Yadav population, Nitish targeted EBC votes and came up with ideas like dividing Dalits into ‘Mahadalits' and started cultivating Extremely backward castes. Nitish Kumar's maneuverings had an impact on Paswan's influence and today he is left with the support of his Paswan caste men only. In 2009, RJD had given more importance to Paswan than Congress and LJP was given 12 LS seats but LJP lost all seats. This time, both RJD and Congress were not willing to spare more than 4-5 seats to LJP and Paswan was not ready to accept that because he needed 4 seats for his own family – Paswan himself, son Chirag Paswan, brothers Ramchandra Paswan and Pashupati Kumar Paras. He had to adjust his core supporters like Surajbhan Singh and Rama Singh as well. The BJP, that has high expectations from Bihar this time, lost no time in offering Paswan a helping hand and clinched the deal with LJP offering Paswan a total of 7 seats. The BJP had nothing to lose as the party had not done well on the seats that Paswan was asking for. The alliance with Paswan has helped BJP in cementing what is called opposition index. But the game changer was something else. More than Paswan's desperation to get back into corridors of power, it was the emergence of his son Chirag Paswan as the key decision maker in LJP that paved the way for BJP-LJP alliance. Chirag, who failed to make it big in Bollywood, has finally decided to join the family business of politics. At a young age, he has been made chairman of LJP's parliamentary board. Unlike Paswan, he carries no ideological baggage and has no problem in playing ball with Modi. Chirag is convinced that there is a Modi wave in the country as well as in Bihar and he does not want to miss the bus. He persuaded Paswan to abandon the sinking ship of Congress and RJD and board Modi's jet. Paswan is senior to both Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in Politics. He became MLA for the first time in 1969 when Lalu and Nitish had not even joined active politics. While both Lalu and Paswan became Chief Minister of Bihar at different point of time, Paswan's dreams remained unfulfilled. Today, he has pinned all his hopes on his son Chirag Paswan. And Chirag is now guiding him which way the wind is blowing.