Nitish Kumar falls in his own trap in Bihar

New Delhi, Jun 7: The margin of defeat for the JD (U) candidate in Maharajganj Lok Sabha by-polls is a clear sign of Nitish Kumar falling in his own trap. The RJD candidate Prabhunath Singh has trounced the JD(U) candidate and state HRD minister P K Shahi by 1 lakh 37,000 votes. It was supposed to be a neck-and-neck fight but the poll result shows that the electorate was miffed with the arrogance that Nitish had started displaying in recent times and was waiting for the right time to manifest its anger and Maharajganj by-poll was just the perfect occasion. The Maharajganj result is a clear reminder to the fact that Nitish can't rely solely on his well crafted EBC and Mahadalit vote banks.Neither can he expect the bulk support from the Muslim community of the state that is still standing behind Lalu Prasad. It means that he still needs BJP as much as the BJP needs him. Parting of ways will be suicidal for both the parties. BJP being a national party can still survive the setback but JD (U) will be back to 1995 era. It is important to recall the political scenario of 1995 in Bihar. After breaking off with Lalu Prasad led Janata Dal, Nitish Kumar along with George Fernandes had formed Samata Party and went into assembly elections as an alternative to Lalu regime. But Nitish was shocked to see that the people of Bihar had thoroughly rejected his claims and Samata Party could win just 7 seats. It was an eye-opener for Nitish as far as his political clout in the state was concerned. At that time, George Fernandes who was a shrewd politician advised Nitish Kumar to join hands with BJP notwithstanding its so-called communal image in the aftermath of Ayodhya movement and Babri demolition. Nitish Kumar had to come to terms with this arrangement as he wanted to prove a point to Lalu who had returned to power despite Nitish pulling off from the Janata Dal. The BJP was also looking out for a credible OBC face that could challenge Lalu's hegemony in Bihar. The BJP was almost a political pariah at that time and any kind of support from socialist leaders like George Fernandes and Nitish Kumar meant a lot to the party at that time. Under these circumstances, the alliance between BJP and JD(U) was sealed in Bihar. Nitish knew that he had a clean image but there was no grass root infrastructure. The BJP, on the other hand, had grass root infrastructure, thanks to RSS network in the state, but the party lacked a credible face at the state level. So in 1995, both the BJP and Nitish Kumar complemented each other. The coming together of Nitish Kumar and BJP consolidated the opposition index. In 2005, all anti-Lalu forces joined hands under the Nitish Kumar led NDA. Even at that time, it was Lalu Prasad who had the biggest support base in the state. Lalu had the unflinching support of Yadavs constituting 11 percent of the electorate and Muslims constituting 16 percent of the electorate. Nitish, on his own, was in no position to challenge Lalu Prasad given the fact that his own caste men' Kurmis ‘constituted 1.5-2 % of the electorate. The people of Bihar, who were fed up with the misrule of Lalu-Rabri dispensation, threw their weight behind Nitish-led NDA and the 15 year old RJD regime came to an end. Once Nitish became Chief Minister, he became very ambitious. He played all the tricks to create a committed vote bank of his own through EBC and Mahadalit cards that he started playing so smartly. The consecutive victory for Nitish in 2010 assembly elections made him over-confident and he thought that he could replicate the winning combination of Lalu with the support of Muslims. Now it was not possible for Nitish to win the Muslim support with Modi as PM candidate of NDA. That was the reason why Nitish was never comfortable with ‘Modi for PM' chorus that was getting louder day by day among the rank and file of the BJP. An ambitious Nitish decided to assert himself as he thought that he could afford to part ways with BJP. The basic assumption behind this line of thought was Nitish Kumar's belief that upper castes, who are largely with BJP, will have no other option because they can't afford a comeback of Lalu who had hostile relations with that community. He was also under impression that even if upper caste voters desert him , the loss will be compensated by the Muslim support that he will get after he dumps the BJP that is anathema to the Muslims. But both his assumptions have proved to be wrong in Maharajganj. The major chunk of upper castes either did not vote for him or remained indifferent and the Muslims refused to play ball with Nitish despite his high-decibel opposition to Narendra Modi and the outcome was a loss of face for Nitish in this prestigious battle. So, the question is – Is Modi a factor in Bihar? If yes, has it played a role in the humiliating loss that the Nitish Kumar led NDA has suffered in Maharajganj? All inputs from the grassroot level suggest that Narendra Modi has become a factor in Bihar indeed especially with the upper castes. The way Nitish has opposed Modi has not gone down well with this section of the electorate and they have vented their anger in Maharajganj by-poll.In fact, Modi is getting support from OBC community as well who consider him as one of them. And this is something that is creating a huge problem for Nitish Kumar and is proving to be a big impediment in his ambitious roadmap. The Maharajganj result clearly indicates that time has come for Nitish Kumar to take a clear stand on Modi because Modi has already succeeded in creating his own constituency that is desperate to see him as the PM candidate. Any ambivalence will cost Nitish very dearly because he will lose both pro- and anti-Modi votes. There are only two options left for Nitish Kumar. First, he should show the political wisdom of 1995 if he wants to cling to power and reconcile himself with a scenario wherein Narendra Modi will be the PM candidate of NDA. Second, he should be upfront on not compromising with his stated position on Narendra Modi even if it costs him politically the way it has happened in Maharajganj. May be that will help him in galvanizing anti-Modi forces under his own umbrella and he would be in a position to offer an alternative to the people of Bihar in upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Unfortunately, Nitish Kumar is left with no third viable alternative. Any tie-up with Congress will not bear desired fruits under present circumstances as has been proved in Maharajganj by-polls where the Congress candidate has performed poorly and has been relegated to fourth position. For the time being, Nitish Kumar has fallen in his own trap and it's time for a deep introspection for him.