Can Congress stop Modi in Gujarat this time?

New Delhi, Oct 6: with the EC announcing dates for Gujarat assembly elections, the political temperature has suddenly gone up not only in Gujarat but the entire country. The reason being that this is not going to be any other assembly election. The outcome of Gujarat will decide the fate of Narendra Modi's prime ministerial ambitions and will, most probably, set the stage for 2014 elections. If Modi wins comprehensively then his claim for NDA's PM candidature will get further boost and Congress will definitely not like its Yuvraj Rahul Gandhi competing directly with Modi in 2014 general elections. Therefore, Congress will try its best to stop Modi juggernaut in Gujarat this time. But does the Congress have enough weapons in its stock that can pour cold water over Modi's prime ministerial dreams?Narendra Modi is seeking people's mandate in the state for third time in a row. He took over as CM in 2001 after Keshubhai Patel had to resign in the wake of internal rebellion instigated and overtly supported by Shankar Singh Vaghela. Modi won 2002 and 2007 assembly elections with a thumping majority. And now Modi is asking his electorate to romp him home for third consecutive time.Modi has already left Congress far behind so far as launching election campaign is concerned. He had launched his election campaign on the 150th anniversary of Swami Vivekanand's historic speech at Chicago. In order to present himself as a true follower of Vivekanand and to connect with youths of the state, Modi named his political yatra as ‘Vivekanand Yuva vikas yatra'. Modi's election strategy is simple – showcase the development of Gujarat that has definitely gained momentum during his regime, attack UPA govt including PM Manmohan Singh for flip-flops on policy matters, expose Rahul's inexperience and vulnerability, attack Sonia gandhi's for not being accountable despite taking all vital decisions. Modi's attack on Manmohan and Sonia-Rahul is not very surprising given the fact that Congress has no leader worth name in Gujarat who has the requisite face value to take on Modi. Modi is well aware of this fact and that's why he tries to kill two birds with one stone. First he makes the local congress realize that they don't have the stature to compete with him and second, every attack on PM and Sonia-Rahul positions Modi as a serious contender in national politics, especially as PM contender in 2014 elections.That his achievements on development front would be his main poll plank was clear from his choice of starting and ending point for his yatra. Modi's yatra started from the temple town of Bahucharaji near which a massive Maruti plant is to be set up and his yatra will come to an end at Sanand where Tata's Nano plant is located. Modi's message is clear – he means business and that he has done his homework well.Modi has this knack of coming up with effective one-liners which catches the fancy of a common voter. Launching a scathing attack on PM Manmohan Singh, Modi said he turns into a Singham (Ajay Devgan's character in a film) but only for foreigners. Modi said that Manmohan has shown spine only twice – once during Indo-US nuclear deal and second time for this FDI in multi-brand retail that is bound to deprive small Indian traders of their livelihood. Making fun of Manmoahn govt, Modi branded it as “ a govt of the foreigners, for the foreigners and by the foreigners” in direct contrast to Abraham Lincoln's concept of “ a govt of the people, for the people and by the people.”Similarly, Modi took a dig at Rahul's Italy connection and said that Rahul is an international who could fight elections not only from India but Italy too. An aggressive Modi didn't spare even Sonia Gandhi and demanded details of govt expenditure on Sonia Gandhi's frequent foreign trips and treatment. Modi alleged a scam of 1,880 crore relating to Sonia's overseas tours.It seems Modi is clearly working on the age old adage – a battle is won and lost in mind. Modi is trying to win the mind game and he seems to be succeeding for the time being as the Congress finds itself at loss of words for counter attack on such personal and vitriolic attack against the first family of the party.Now the question is what option Sonia Gandhi has in Gujarat? She has been trying all the tricks since 2002 to stop the forward march of Narendra Modi. For example in 2002, the electorate was completely polarized in the aftermath of Godhra riots and Sonia tried to play ‘soft Hindutva' card. As veteran journalist M J Akbar observed at that time, Congress advised its workers to avoid to be seen with Muslims in Hindu dominated areas. Not only this, Sonia met a number of Sadhu and saints just to convey the message that she was also pro-Hindu in her approach. But all these well-laid plans went awry and Modi won the assembly elections handsomely.In 2007 assembly elections, Sonia Gandhi changed tack and attacked Narendra Modi vociferously. He went to the extent of branding Narendra Modi ‘Maut ka saudagar (Merchant of death)'. But this one statement of Sonia Gandhi provided a new vigour to Narendra Modi's campaign and he used this to the hilt and the Modi's electorate decided to stand firmly behind Modi as he was seen as being unnecessarily demonized by Sonia Gandhi. BJP finally won 117 seats and Congress was once again defeated comprehensively. This time Sonia Gandhi is completely short of tricks. She just does not know how to attack and where to attack so that it really hurts Modi's fortunes. She doesn't want to harp on Godhra riots and Modi's communal politics even though judicial verdict in Naroda Patia massacre and conviction of Maya Kodnani has embarrassed Modi hugly. But Sonia knows Modi would love to be attacked on this so that he could once again succeed in polarizing the electorate. Therefore, when Sonia launched Congress campaign in Rajkot a few days back, she chose to miss 2002 riots and rather focused on Modi's inflated claims of development in the state. But will it really work?The ground reality is that Congress cadre has lost the confidence of defeating Congress. Moreover, Congress has no leader of Modi's stature who could Modi's oratory and management skills. Modi, being an organisation from his RSS days, is deft at managing the oraganisation, suppressing rebellion and putting in place a well-oiled booth-management team. Every government faces the challenge of anti-incumbency and Modi govt,too, has its share of anti-incumbency that includes dissatisfaction in areas that witnessed partial drought but whether that can transform into mass rejection of Modi's policies , is difficult to predict.In the days of Indira Gandhi, Congress had very meticulously crafted KHAM vote bank but it's no longer working for the Congress as BJP has successfully made inroads into almost all sections of the society including SCs and STs. The advantage with Modi is that he himself comes from backward community and he has got support of forward communities as well because of two factors. First, his plank of Hindutva has unified various sections of the community and second, the economic prosperity that ushered in under his dispensation has benefitted every community. Under Modi's rule, Gujarat has seen emergence of a very large middle-class that is comfortable with Modi's economic policies. And this new middle class consist of each and every community.More than Congress, it's the internal machinations than can spoil Modi's prospects. The biggest challenge to Modi will come from Keshubhai Patel who used to be his mentor once upon a time. After being marginalized in the party affairs for a long period, Keshubhai finally broke ranks with BJP and has floated his own party – Gujarat Parivartan Party. Keshubhai is a formidable Patidar(Patel) leader and he has made it clear that this time he will leave no stone unturned in ensuring Modi's ouster. Even in 2007, Keshubhai wasnot happy but Modi is believed to have exploited differences between Leuva and Kadva Patels. Keshubhai belongs to Leuva Patel community but this time he is trying to unite all Patidars under his new found party. In 2007, Keshubhai's absence from the country also helped Modi in consolidating Patel votes.If Keshubhai succeeds in bringing the two factions of Patels under one roof then Modi will be in real trouble. According to an estimate,out of 6 crore Gujaratis, one crore belong to Patel community any political churning in this community can mahe or break the electoral prospects of any political party. According to some reports, Keshubhai has got tacit support of some BJP bigwigs who are not comfortable with Modi's meteoric rise and the prospects of his emergence as BJP's PM candidate but all this will not have any impact on voting pattern. In 2007 elections, out of 182 assembly seats, BJP got 117 seats and 49.1 percent of votes polled. Although the no. of BJP seats went down by 4 seats, the vote percentage was spectacular and underlined Modi's electoral supremacy. Congress had got similar vote percentage in 1984 but that's history now and Congress is out of power in Gujarat since 1998.One thing is for sure, Congress does not seem to have enough fire power on its own to upset the applecart of Narendra Modi but yes, if it gets covert support from disgruntled elements within Sangh Parivar that includes Keshubhai, VHP and Bajrang Dal elements then it could be a different story altogether. As we say, it's very difficult to predict the outcome of an election in a diverse society like ours but on a safer side, it can be easily said that dethroning Modi govt in upcoming assembly elections will be a herculean task for Congress.