BJP's Modi dilemma may rock its electoral boat

New Delhi: Arun Jaitley's apprehensions of BJP losing the next general elections because of internal sabotage (he used the word ‘hit wicket') was not a casual remark. It was a very timely remark that came from a person who is in the know of all the political machinations that are at work within BJP. Recent political developments have proved that Arun Jaitley's worst fears may become a reality unless the top leadership takes corrective measures well within time. BJP is facing a very strange dilemma. As long as Atal-Advani era was prevalent, the party's cadres and top leaders spoke in perfect harmony. After Vajpayee distanced himself from the day-to-day functioning of the BJP because of his poor health and Advani lost his charisma post his Jinnah-remark and subsequent defeat of the party in 2009 general elections, the leadership issue has become very divisive in the power circles of the BJP. As on today, everybody agrees that it's Modi only who can provide the leadership to the party for challenging the Congress led UPA in 2014 elections. There is a virtual TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor that exists in the party as far as effective and charismatic leadership is concerned. There is no other leader worth name in the BJP who can challenge Modi in terms of popularity among masses or the party cadres. The rank and file of the BJP is ecstatic over Modi emerging as the new leader. Given the fact that a strong mood of anti-incumbency is palpable among electorates, BJP had all the chances of storming back to power in upcoming general elections but the party is finding itself in a new quagmire of internal conspiracies relating to leadership tussle. The spanner came not from the political opponents of the BJP but from those leaders of the party who have been calling the shots from Delhi without having any mass base. This is shocking for a democracy where popular sentiment and popular preference must prevail at all cost. But unfortunately it's not happening in the principal opposition party of the country. So who are these leaders? Well, everybody knows the names that constitute the list but the reports emanating from BJP's inner circles point the finger towards two leaders of the BJP – Lal Krishna Advani and Sushma Swaraj. That Advani feels jealous of Modi is no longer a secret. He had gone public with his reservations over Modi's leadership and RSS had to intervene for dowsing the fire that he had so carefully ignited to spoil the party after Modi was declared the chairman of BJP's election campaign committee. Advani was forced to swallow his pride after the RSS tersely asked him either to fall in line or get sidelined. But Advani is not a person who will give up so easily. After all, he has made the party brick-by-brick over the years.So under a new strategy, Advani is now using his staunch supporter Sushma Swaraj for preventing Modi from being declared as the PM candidate. Since Sushma can't say this openly, she has come out with her own lame excuses. According to media reports, she has told the RSS that she would not be able to work effectively as the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha if Modi is officially nominated as PM candidate. Her line of argument is that naming Modi as the prime ministerial candidate ahead of the assembly polls would shift the focus from corruption, economic crisis and misgovernance to polarisation over Modi's divisive personality. This is despite the fact that all pre-poll surveys have shown that Modi is the best bet for the party in upcoming general elections. One need not be a genius to decipher her real motive. She has her own hidden prime ministerial ambitions and if that does not materializes then she would definitely prefer Advani who is more than willing to take the mantle once again. The duo of Advani-Swaraj has also roped in regional satraps like MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan who also rates himself no less capable than Modi so far as good governance is concerned. After Advani's claims for PM post was firmly rejected by RSS, a disappointed Advani decided to pit Shivraj against Modi citing his yeoman's service to Madhya Pradesh. Shivraj Chauhan too has started an intra-party campaign against declaring Modi as PM candidate, after he was egged on for the same by Advani-Sushma duo. Since he also doesn't want to be seen as openly opposing Modi's candidature, he has come up with a different strategy. Instead of saying that don't declare Modi as the PM candidate , he is now saying that don't declare his name for the PM post before assembly elections are over in his state.It means that he is virtually asking for the postponement of the declaration of Modi's candidature. And he has cited well researched reasons for the same. His point is that MP has 7 percent Muslim votes and Modi's formal declaration as PM candidate will spoil the party's chances in the assembly elections. Shivraj Chauhan's point is that Muslim votes are crucial in at least 40 assembly seats and Modi's candidature can polarize the electorate in these constituencies. The argument does not hold water in face of the fact that BJP had won assembly elections in MP under an equally divisive Uma Bharti and this Muslim factor failed to stop her from becoming the CM. Now the RSS is also in dilemma over how to resolve the differences between warring factions of the BJP.RSS has made up its mind over Modi's candidature but is finding it difficult to bring everybody on board on leadership issue. At least RSS is convinced that Modi is the only hope for the parivar if they have to taste power once again that is so crucial for the larger objectives of RSS scheme of things.RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat is in Delhi for the last few days and is reportedly trying to create a consensus over Modi's name. He is meeting all important leaders including those who are against Modi's candidature. Bhagwat has already met Advani and his emissary has already met Sushma Swaraj but things don't seem to moving in the way he wants to. So what are the options left for the RSS? RSS is not known to backtrack once it makes up its mind over an issue. Will the RSS hold its ground this time as well or will surrender to the whims of the leaders who lack any mass base support? Whatever be the case, one thing is for sure that it's the BJP that is going to be the biggest loser if this battle is not stopped immediately. It's time for the party to pay heed to the fears that Arun Jaitley so eloquently expressed lest it becomes a bitter reality and sinks the electoral boat of the BJP.