Tough time for Sonia, Rahul Gandhi as Congress faces rebellions in the states

New Delhi:  The number '44' seems to be a bad omen for the Congress. In 2014 when Narendra Modi swept to power, the Grand Old Party barely managed to win 44 seats. The number rose to 45 a year later, when its candidate won the Ratlam bypolls from MP, but with rebellions in the states, the Congress party will now once again be reduced to 44 seats in the Lok Sabha. 

On Monday, the Congress party’s MP from Telangana’s Nalgonda constituency G S Reddy announced that he along with a serving party MLA Bhaskar Rao and others will join Telangana Rashtra Samiti(TRS) on June 15.

Interestingly, Reddy thanked Congress for giving him an opportunity to serve the people of Telangana but expressed his anguish over the continuing infighting in the party. The rebels thanked Sonia Gandhi for creating Telangana but said that now they will join TRS to build a ‘golden Telangana’.

It goes without saying that all these claims of deserting the Congress ship when it is perceived to be sinking is nothing but sheer hogwash.

The fact is that once out of power, the hold of Nehru-Gandhi family over the party is increasingly being challenged by the regional satraps who have started doubting the ability of the family to win them future elections.

The message to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is clear – if you want unflinching loyalty then deliver electorally else don’t take obeisance for granted.

After being reduced to a historic low of 44, the message has gone out that the family is no longer in a position to win elections and it has ignited the flames of revolt.

Reddy is not the only example. Before him, six Congress MLAs led by Sudip Roy Barman crossed over to Trinamool Congress in Tripura.

Ajit Jogi, former Congress CM of Chhatisgarh,  has already announced plans to float a new political formation in Chhatisgarh.

Vijay Bahuguna, former Congress CM of Uttarakhand,  and 9 other rebel Congress MLAs have already joined BJP. Bahuguna is now part of BJP’s National Executive Council.

Girdhar Gamang, the man who was instrumental in facilitating the fall of Vajpaee government in parliament by 1 vote has also crossed over to BJP and is now the member of its National Executive Council.

The defeat of Congress candidate R K Anand in Haryana Rajya Sabha polls has clearly indicated that B S Hooda is in no mood to accept the whimsical orders of the Gandhi family. Hooda’s open defiance has divided the party for all practical purposes.

And the revolt  of Himanta Biswa Sharma  in Assam gave such a jolt to the Congress party, which was ruling the state for last 15 years, that it broke the back of the grand old party paving the way for the formation of the first ever BJP government in the state.  

Obviously, all these can’t be mere coincidences as there is a clear-cut pattern in all such acts of defiance and revolt.

This is not for the first time that the Congress is witnessing exodus and split.

In fact, whenever the party has been thrown out of power, the party starts witnessing spli and exodus.

It happened to Indira Gandhi in the past and now it’s happening to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi.

Let’s have a look at some of the important the splits in Congress post-independence:  

First split in Congress ( 1969)

In 1967, Congress lost elections to a number of state Assemblies in Hindi belt and a united opposition under the banner of Samyukta Vidhayak Dal, for the first time, formed non-Congress governments in these provinces.
The defeat in Assembly elections weakened the position of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

On 12 November 1969, the then Congress president S. Nijalingappa expelled Indira Gandhi from the party allegedly on the charges of indiscipline.

Indira Gandhi formed her own Indian National Congress (Requisitionists) also referred to as Congress (R) while the other faction was called Indian National Congress (Organisation) or Congress (O).

In the 1971 Lok Sabha elections, Congress (R) of Indira Gandhi emerged a clear winner. Indira’s formation won 44% of the vote and 352 seats  while Congress (O) won about 10% of the vote and 16 Lok Sabha seats.

In view of the spectacular performance of the Indira Gandhi-led faction, the Election Commission (EC) recognized it as the real Congress. EC also allowed it to call itself Indian National Congress without any suffix.

In 1977 Lok Sabha elections that took place after the Emergency imposed by Indira  Gandhi’s government was lifted, Congress (O) joined hands with Janata alliance which trounced Indira Gandhi’s party badly. Later that year, Congress (O) merged with parties like Bharatiya Lok Dal and Bharatiya Jan Sangh to form the  Janata Party.

1994 split in Congress

After the death of Rajiv Gandhi, the Congress party won 1991 general elections and PV Narasimha Rao became the Prime Minister.

At that time, no member of Gandhi family was active in politics and a formidable faction led by N D Tiwari, Arjun Singh and K Natwar Singh formed a separate party in 1994 that was called Congress (Tiwari).

 This faction consisting of ambitious leaders who doubted the ability of PV Narasimha Rao to win elections for the party that prompted them to go for the the split. It’s a different matter that Congress (Tiwari) merged with the Congress after Sonia Gandhi took over the reins of the party.

Mamata Banerjee deserts Congress in 1997

In 1997, Mamata Banerjee left the Congress Party in West Bengal and established the All India Trinamool Congress in protest against Congress party’s soft approach towards the then ruling Left Front.

Incidentally, Mamata Banerjee dethroned Left Front government in 2011 assembly elections in alliance with the same Congress Party.

In 2016 Assembly elections, Mamata once again trounced Left Front but this time Sonia Gandhi-led Congress was in alliance with the arch-rivals, the CPI(M)-led Left Front.

1999 split in Congress

Another split took place in 1999 when Sharad Pawar, P A Sangma and Tariq Anwar revolted in protest against projecting Sonia Gandhi as the PM candidate of the Congress party.

They objected to her foreign origin and insisted that she can’t be made the PM of India.

All these three leaders formed their separate party called Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). It’s a different matter that when Sonia Gandhi-led Congress stormed to power in 2004, NCP of Sharad Pawar joined the Congress-led UPA as an alliance partner.  

The Congress party ruled the centre from 2004 to 2014. Everything was hunky dory for the party in these 10 years.

Trouble started once again after the party lost 2014 general elections and the quantum of loss was unprecedented. The party was reduced to mere 44 seats in the parliament.

Not only that, the party lost a series of state elections from Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, Delhi to Jammu and Kashmir and the disgruntled elements who were powerful in their respective states lost no opportunity in raising the banner of revolt.

If Himanta Biswa Sharma was not willing to play second fiddle to Gaurav Gogoi, the son of Tarun Gogoi then Ajit Jogi was miffed with the high command for not treating his son Amit Jogi as his heir apparent.

Vijay Bahuguna was unhappy because he was forced to resign as Uttarakhand CM in favour of Harish Rawat and Hooda is unhappy because the dynasty foisted a RS candidate who he did not like.

As long as the dynasty was winning elections, the voices of dissent were not allowed to come out in open but with withering appeal of the family, every disgruntled element believes that it’s the right time to strike back.

It’s true that Congress has suffered a massive setback in 2014 general elections and afterwards but one can’t overlook the fact that the party ruled at centre for 10 consecutive years, Assam for 15 consecutive years, Delhi for 15 consecutive years, Haryana for 10 consecutive years, Maharashtra for 10 consecutive years . These are no mean achievements. It’s very natural that a party will start losing after such a long period of power.

Therefore, it will be naive on part of both Congress party’s opponents and over-enthusiastic political commentators to start writing the obituary of a grand old party like Congress which is capable of rising from the ashes, more like a phoenix.