Opinion poll shows BJP set to win UP with clear majority, 76 pc support ‘note ban’: Report

With only a month left for Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, an opinion poll from an Indian weekly has suggested that the Bharatiya Janata Party may sweep to power in the politically-crucial state.

BJP has emerged as a winner with clear majority in the seven-phase Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh starting next month, says a poll survey conducted by a leading news channel.

The opinion poll, conducted from October to December last year in UP, shows that PM Modi’s demonetisation move made a positive impact on BJP’s vote share. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. 

The survey shows the BJP’s vote share increasing from 31 per cent in October (before note ban) to 33 per cent in December. In terms of seats, it projects 206-216 seats for the saffron party in the 403-member UP Assembly. In the 2012 Assembly election, the BJP commanded a 15 per cent vote share and won 47 seats. 

On the other hand, the ruling Samajwadi Party, despite being wounded with the dramatic family feud, is likely to emerge as the second largest party with a vote share of 26 per cent, according to the survey which puts its seat tally at 92-97. 

Surprisingly, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is neck-to-neck with Samajwadi Party in terms of vote share, and is projected to win 79-85 seats. In the last Opinion Poll the BSP's tally was projected between 115-124. The reason behind the BSP's decline seems to be its inability to get incremental voters beyond its traditional Dalit vote bank.

Congress, however, continues to struggle in the state as party is projected to win barely 5-9 seats with only 6 per cent vote share. Rahul Gandhi’s high voltage campaign and Prashant Kishore’s electoral strategising seems to have made no difference to the party’s fortunes. 

According to the survey, Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav emerged as a clear choice for the next chief minister with 33 per cent of those surveyed wanting him to return to power. 20 per cent of the surveyors preferred BJP’s Rajnath Singh as the CM candidate. 

Furthermore, an overwhelming 76 per cent of the respondents in the survey supported demonetisation. But people are split on whether the common man is inconvenienced by the move, with 58 per cent saying that they have been facing problems because of the note ban, whereas 42 per cent saying that they are not inconvenienced. 

More than half the respondents (51 per cent) say that they believe that DeMo will help eliminate the menace of black money and fake notes.