India TV-CVoter exit poll predicts hung assemblies in UP, Uttarakhand; AAP win in Punjab

The crucial Uttar Pradesh election is going to throw up a hung assembly, with both BJP and Samajwadi Party-Congress combine locked in a close contest and the Bahujan Samaj Party coming third, says the India TV-CVoter exit poll projections telecast on the channel tonight. 

The projection range shows BJP getting 155 to 167 seats, while the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance may get 135 to 147 seats, with BSP projected to come third within a range of 81 to 93 seats. 

'Others' may get 8 to 20 seats, the magic mark for a majority being 202 in a House of 403. 

Vote share percentage wise, BJP is projected to get the highest 33.4 pc, followed by SP-Congress at 32.3 pc, BSP 24.3 pc and 'Others' 10 per cent. 

The exit poll breaks up UP into six regions. Region-wise, the BJP may get 36-40 in Poorvanchal, 30-34 in Awadh, 35-39 in Upper Doab, 16-20 in Ruhelkhand, 25-29 in Lower Doab and  7-11 in Bundelkhand.

Region-wise, SP-Congress may get 31-35 seats in Awadh, 29-33 in Poorvanchal, 26-30 in Lower Doab, 24-28 in Ruhelkhand, 17-21 in Upper Doab and only 2-6 in Bundelkhand.

BSP is projected to get 27-31 seats in Poorvanchal, 24-28 in Avadh, 10-14 in Upper Doab, 6-10 in Ruhelkhand, and 4-8 each in Bundelkhand and Lower Doab. 

In the 2012 UP assembly polls, SP-Congress had won 252 seats, while BSP had won 80 and BJP 47 seats. 'Others' had won 24 seats. 

CVoter said, the exit poll was conducted on a sample size of 49,020 covering 402 seats with a margin of error of plus/minus 3 per cent. It was done in CATI mode. 

Punjab

In the border state of Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party is projected to form a government getting majority in a projection range of 59 to 67 out of a total of 117 assembly seats, with Congress projected to come second within a range of 41-49, and the ruling Akali Dal-BJP projected to get a severe drubbing in a projection range of 5-13 seats.  

Region-wise, Aam Aadmi Party is projected to win 40-44 seats in Malwa, 13-18 in Majha and 4-8 seats in Doab, while Congress may win 17-21 seats in Doab, 14-18 in Malwa and 8-12 seats in Majha. SAD-BJP combine may win 3-7 seats in Malwa and 0-4 each in Doab and Majha. 

Vote-share wise, AAP may get a whopping 36.7 per cent votes, closely followed by Congress with 36.3 pc and the ruling SAD-BJP with 21.4 pc votes. Others may get 5.6 pc vote share. 

In the 2012 assembly polls, SAD-BJP alliance had won 68 seats, Congress 46 seats and 'Others' had won three seats. The AAP was not formed at that time. 

Uttarakhand

In the hilly state of Uttarakhand, both the BJP and Congress are neck and neck and may fall short of majority. The projection range was: 29 to 35 for BJP, 29 to 35 for Congress, and 2 to 8 for 'Others'. 

Vote share wise, the BJP may get 40.5 per cent votes, the Congress 40.4 pc and 'Others' 19.2 pc votes. 

Region wise, BJP may get 15-17seats in Garhwal, and 7-9 seats each in Kumaun and plains, while the Congress may get 15-17seats in Kumaun, 10-12 seats in plains and only 4-5 seats in Garhwal. Others may get 1-3 each in Kumaun and Garhwal and 0-3 seats in the plains. 

In the 2012 assembly polls, the Congress had won 32 seats, BJP 31 and 'Others' 6. 

The exit poll was conducted on a sample size of 7220 spread in 70 seats, with a margin error of plus/minus 3 pc.

Goa

Goa is heading towards a hung assembly, with India TV-CVoter exit poll predicting a range of 15-21 seats for BJP and allies in a House of 40. Congress and allies are projected to win in a range of 12-18 and Aam Aadmi Party may win within a range of 0-4 seats. 'Others' may win in a range of 2-8 seats, and they may hold the key to government formation. 

Region wise, BJP may win 7-11 seats each in North Goa and South Goa, Congress may win 5-9 in North Goa and 6-10 in South Goa, AAP 0-2 each in both regions, and 'Others' 1-5 in North Goa and 0-4 in South Goa.

In 2012 assembly polls, BJP and allies had won 24 seats, Congress and allies had won nine, and 'Others' had won 7 seats. 

Vote share wise, BJP and allies may get 35.8 pc votes but these may not help them to get a clear majority. Congress and allies may get 31.9 pc, Aam Aadmi Party 12.8 pc and 'Others' may get 19.5 pc votes.

The exit poll was carried out on a sample size of 1459 covering 40 seats with an error margin of plus/minus 3 pc. 

Manipur

In the north-eastern state of Manipur, BJP is projected to win within a range of 25-31 out of a total 60 seats in the assembly, with the ruling party Congress trailing at 17-23. 'Others' may win 9-15 seats. 

Region wise, BJP may win 12 to 16 seats in Inner Manipur, 6 to 10 seats in 'New Districts', and 4 to 8 seats in Outer Manipur. Congress may win 13 to 17 seats in Inner Manipur, one to five in New Districts, and 0 to 4 in Outer Manipur. 'Others' may win 6 to 10 seats in Outer Manipur, 1 to 5 in Inner Manipur and 0 to 3 in New Districts. 

Voting percentage wise, BJP may get 34.8 per cent votes, Congress may get 32.7 pc and 'Others' 32.5 pc votes. 

The exit poll was conducted on a sample size of 1330 covering 60 seats with a margin of error of plus/minus 3 pc. 

In the 2012 assembly polls, the ruling Congress had won 42 seats in a House of 60, with 'Others' winning 18 and BJP 'nil'