Disqualification of 21 AAP MLAs: Is Kejriwal planning to shift to Punjab?

New Delhi: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal does not seem to be bothered over the ongoing controversy over the appointment of 21 AAP MLAS as  parliamentary secretaries.
 
In fact, he seems to be well prepared for the worst scenario wherein all these 21 MLAs are disqualified by the Election Commission (EC).
 
Political observers point out that Kejriwal committed a clear mistake in appointing 21 parliamentary secretaries by crossing the ceiling of 10% of the strength of the Delhi Assembly.
 
He also bypassed the Lt. Governor in the entire process and when the President withheld his assent to a bill that Delhi government passed to protect these parliamentary secretaries, Kejriwal put the entire blame on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
 
If media reports are to be believed, Delhi’s Chief Electoral Officer has already written to the Election Commission terming the appointment of these 21 MLAs as illegal. The EC is also reportedly ready to hold byelections for all these 21 seats in Delhi within 6 months.
 
So what happens if all these 21 MLAs are actually disqualified? What will be the next course of action for Arvind Kejriwal?
 
There is a view among political commentators that  Kejriwal is fully prepared to face the electorate in these 21 constituencies and he is confident of winning a majority of these seats.
 
Even if Kejriwal manages to win 15-16 out of these21 seats, given the fact that his popularity is still very high among his core constituency of lower middle class and slum dwellers,
his morale will still be very high.
 
A victory in these bypolls will energise Kejriwal to enter the electoral fray in Punjab with a new vigour.
 
And Punjab is one state where AAP claims, it stands a good chance of winning the state Assembly elections. There is a widespread disenchantment among the electorate against the present regime of Akali-BJP alliance which is facing serious charges of corruption and rampant drug trafficking.
 
After 10 years of rule, the credibility of Akali-BJP alliance is at an all-time low. Since the resentment against Akali-BJP alliance is mainly on account of corruption, the chances of Congress are no better because on this front, the grand old party’s own credibility is very low.
 
For the people of Punjab, AAP leaders promise to bring a new ray of hope and like Delhiites, they may go for an experiment by giving Kejriwal’s party a chance to rule.

There is a good possibility of AAP cutting into the traditional vote banks of Congress in Punjab that primarily consists of lower strata of the society including SCs and STs. Like Delhi, Congress may be the biggest loser if AAP gains in Punjab.
 
Will Arvind Kejriwal be the Chief Minister? Well, these are very early days and nothing can be predicted as of now.
 
That Kejriwal has his own larger plans became very clear when he, as Delhi Chief Minister, decided against holding any portfolio with himself. Obviously, he wanted to devout all his time for monitoring as well as for exploring his party’s avenues beyond Delhi.
 
Immediately after the formation of his government on Valentine’s Day of 2015, there were speculations in media that Kejriwal wants to hand over Delhi Chief Ministership to Manish Sisodiya and focus on expanding the base of AAP in other states especially Punjab.
 
And these speculations continue even today. Ask any political commentator, he will tell you that these speculations are not entirely baseless.
 
By now, one thing has become crystal clear about Delhi Chief Arvind Kejriwal. The AAP supremo is a very ambitious person and he does not intend to restrict himself to the confines of national capital only.
 
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was formed on 26 November, 2012. Within a short span of around three and a half years, the metamorphosis of bureaucrat-turned social worker Arvind Kejriwal into a hardcore politician is almost complete.
 
He picked up the tricks of politics so fast that today he is considered a master strategist in political circles. His landslide victory in Delhi Assembly elections that gave his party an unprecedented 67 seats in a house of 70 forced even veteran politicians like Nitish Kumar to seek his guidance for winning elections.
 
It is said that Arvind Kejriwal was one of the main advisors of Nitish Kumar in the 2015 Assembly elections. If Prashant Kishore was advising him on devising communication strategies then Kejriwal was guiding him on how to provoke PM Modi so that he could make mistakes that could be capitalised upon by the Bihar Chief Minister in elections. The strategy clicked in Bihar, Modi indeed got provoked many times during election campaign and Nitish Kumar romped home with flying colours.
 
A closer look at his political journey clearly indicates that Kejriwal started positioning for a much bigger role than the post of Delhi Chief Minister almost immediately after plunging into politics.
 
Kejriwal knows that Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi lacks the mass appeal and charisma to challenge Narendra Modi in 2019 general elections. As Mamata Banerjee pointed out recently, Rahul is the USP of Modi and Kejriwal believes that the timing is perfect for him to try and fill the vacuum that exists in the opposition ranks.
 
The question is – can AAP do well in states like Punjab and Goa purely on the strength of personal charisma of Arvind Kejriwal?  He has the example of Modi in front of him. Modi’s charisma was the main factor behind the historic victory of BJP in 2014 elections but there was well-oiled party machinery plus the RSS set up across the country which helped the party translate the goodwill for Modi into actual votes.
 
It’s true that Rahul Gandhi’s consistent failures have provided Kejriwal with an opportunity to fill the vacuum.  The problem is that AAP lacks organisational structure  in almost every state except Delhi and Kejriwal will have to first strengthen the foundation of his party in these states.