Assembly poll results: BJP expands footprint but big question mark over Rahul Gandhi’s leadership in 2019 LS polls

New Delhi: The results of 5 state Assemblies have come as a rude shock to Indian National Congress, the grand old party of India. The party has been thrown out of power in two crucial states – Assam and Kerala.

Not only this, the Congress party has also failed to make its presence felt in two other big states – West Bengal and Tamil Nadu – where it had entered into either electoral understandings or alliances with friendly parties.

The only solace for the party comes from Puducherry where the DMK-Congress alliance has won 17 seats in a house of 30 members. Even in Puducherry, the Congress could manage to win only 2 seats.

Obviously, the results of these Assembly polls will further demoralise the rank and file of the Congress which is still its licking wounds from the crushing defeat in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

But more than anything else, the poor performance of the Congress party will further dent the credibility of its vice-president Rahul Gandhi who is preparing to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

After his party’s lacklustre performance in these Assembly polls, Rahul Gandhi faces a big question mark over his leadership qualities and both the electorate as well as the block of anti-BJP parties will find it difficult to accept him as the main opponent of Prime Minister Modi in 2019 polls.

And there are valid reasons behind that. It’s true that state elections can’t be considered as any kind of referendum on national leadership of a political party but a series of electoral losses is bound to diminish the stature of the leader.

After suffering the worst defeat of its history under the unofficial leadership of Rahul Gandhi in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party has lost 5 states in a row by now. When Narendra Modi won 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party was ruling in 11 states.
 
Over a period of two years, the Congress has lost 5 states and presently the party is left with 6 states only. Out of these 6 states, Karnataka is the only big state where it is ruling on its own. In Bihar, the party is in power as part of alliance with JD(U) and RJD. The other 4 states where the party is in power – Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Meghalaya - are too small to make an impact in Lok Sabha elections.

The shrinking profile of Rahul Gandhi and his party has already started inflating the aspirations of regional satraps like Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has returned to power for a third consecutive term. Nitish has his eyes set on 7, Racecourse Road and he has already started positioning himself as the most viable non-BJP alternative to Prime Minister Modi.

The way he replaced Sharad Yadav as the JD(U) President and launched the ‘prohibition’ campaign in UP are clear indication of his determination not to leave any stone unturned in his efforts to fulfil the  long cherished ambition of hoisting flag from the ramparts of Red Fort is concerned.

Now Mamata Banerjee has also joined the league after her spectacular comeback in West Bengal. The scale of her victory will definitely encourage her to turn her eyes on the Delhi chair. Then there are also the likes of Naveen Patnaik who is also into his fourth term as Odisha Chief Minister.

Congress is consistently losing the strength and credibility to challenge Modi in 2019 on its own and the party’s continuing electoral setbacks will encourage these regional satraps to overlook the claims of Rahul Gandhi for being considered as the face of unified non-BJP opposition. Obviously, things are going to become much more difficult for Rahul Gandhi after these Assembly poll results.

As far as BJP is concerned, the party is ecstatic over its all round performance in these Assembly elections.

For the first time in its history, the party will form its government in Assam. The party created another history when its opened its account in Kerala with the victory of its senior leader O Rajagopal.

What is more remarkable is the fact that along with its alliance partner Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), the party has secure around 15% of the votes which is unprecedented in the state’s electoral history.

In West Bengal, the party has once managed to get representation in the state Assembly with victory in 3 seats. Not only that, the BJP has won an impressive 10% of votes. Obviously, the BJP has emerged as the third force in both Kerala and West Bengal.

Although the party failed to open its account in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, its vote share in both these states has improved compared to previous elections and that’s the reason why the party is jubilant over its performance in these Assembly elections.

As BJP President Amit Shah pointed out, the BJP can now claim to have considerable presence across the country from Jammu and Kashmir to Kanyakumari and Kuchh to Kamrup (Assam). The party is now truly acquiring the face of a pan Indian national party as it has succeeded in expanding its footprint across all major parts of the country. It’s no longer the party of cow belt only. It has acquired presence south of Vindhya as well as in north-eastern part of India.

The Congress, on the other hand, is fast losing ground all across the country. If the rate of losing power continues with the same pace in states after states then the day is not very far when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dreams of making a Congress-mukta Bharat (Congress-free India) becomes a reality.

Obvious, it’s time for Rahul Gandhi to pull up his socks because the writing on the wall, as on today, is very clear and unambiguous.