At a time when the world is closely watching developments between Russia and Ukraine, China is looking even more closely at whether Moscow takes a step further and invades Ukraine so that Beijing can stare at Taiwan, as it's well known that the Chinese have a long-term goal to unify with Taiwan.
In the present circumstances concerning the Ukraine crisis, three players have been actively involved -- Russia, Ukraine, and the West.
The West wants Ukraine to join NATO but it's Putin's government's central agenda to prevent it from happening so that the West's forces don't threaten Moscow's interest and dominance in the region. Ukraine has been previously a part of the Soviet Union.
So, if the cold war situation ends in the coming days and Russia moves ahead and launch an offensive against its neighbour, the West, Europe will eventually be involved in a War, that will move out United State's focus from China whose central objectives of unifying with Taiwan may get embolden.
But it wouldn't be too easy because, unlike Ukraine, the United States has much larger interests in Taiwan, because first, it's more central to the world than Kyiv, second it's more actively involved with Central Asia than Russia's neighbour, therefore, even if China may take a step forward in the distant future, it wouldn't be that easy.
So for now, it is the happiest situation for China, as the face-off has diverted the attention of the US from China to Europe, to some extent. It can derive pleasure out of an awkward position of the US, cementing ties with Moscow as never before, at the same time test the appetite of Biden, in case it decides to invade Taiwan. It bears no obligation and can watch from the sidelines playing neutral with no cost to bear.
What about India?
India has good relations with all affected parties and can remain neutral. No country including Ukraine can criticize India for a neutral stance, as most stake-holders held the similar position when China violated all CBMs to enter areas, where it was not supposed to and the Ladakh standoff continues. Indian concerns will include its diaspora, trade (edible oils, pharmaceutical exports, etc) with Ukraine, and the impact of sanctions on Russia if announced by Washington.
(With inputs from IANS)
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