Ottawa: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to face a confidence vote next week as the official opposition Conservatives, who have a commanding lead in the polls ahead of the 2025 general election, said they would try to topple Trudeau on next Wednesday on the grounds that Canadians cannot afford the promised increase in an existing federal carbon tax. Trudeau will need support from other legislators to survive the confidence vote in the House of Commons.
Trudeau, who first took office in November 2015, faces increasing unhappiness from voters over rising prices and a nationwide housing crisis that has been fueled in part by a spike in arrivals of temporary residents including foreign students and workers. He has suffered several political defeats as well - losing a byelection in Toronto in June and another in Montreal on Monday.
He also suffered a major setback earlier this month when Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party (NDP), a key ally keeping his Liberal Party in power, unexpectedly withdrew support from a supply-and-confidence agreement. Polls suggest that the Liberals will lose badly to the right-of-centre Conservatives of Pierre Poilievre in the next federal election.
Can Trudeau survive the confidence vote?
Despite the soaring unpopularity of Trudeau, he is expected to survive the confidence vote next week as he quickly found support from Yves-Francois Blanchet, leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois, which refused to back the attempt to defeat his minority Liberal government in the Canadian Parliament. In 2009, the Bloc backed the then-minority Conservative government on a confidence vote.
"The Bloc Quebecois serves the people of Quebec. It does not serve the Conservatives," Blanchet told reporters, saying replacing Trudeau with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would not suit Quebec's interests. The Bloc, which like the Liberals are a center-left party, could well insist on pro-Quebec concessions in return for keeping Trudeau in power.
Blanchet had said his party, which has 32 seats in the Parliament, is willing to support the government if the Liberals agree on issues like increased support for seniors and granting Quebec more powers in immigration matters. Trudeau insists he will lead the party into an election that must be held by the end of October 2025, but he will have to survive a series of confidence votes to make it that far.
Can Trudeau be forced out of power?
Some Liberal legislators have broken ranks to call for change at the top in the wake of Trudeau's rising unpopularity. Alexandra Mendes, a Liberal lawmaker who represents a Quebec constituency, said last week that many of her constituents wanted Trudeau to go. However, Trudeau is showing no signs of stepping down. He and his closest aides say he is going nowhere and has time to help the party recover.
Unlike in the United States, where President Joe Biden stepped down as Democratic presidential candidate in favour of Vice President Kamala Harris, there is no smooth way for Trudeau to hand over power. Trudeau was selected by a special convention of party members and cannot be forced out if he wants to stay.
One senior Liberal told Reuters if the polls continued to look miserable, senior ministers could urge Trudeau to leave. However, there was no guarantee Trudeau - a stubborn man according to insiders - would listen. If Trudeau steps down, an interim leader will be chosen while the party sets up another convention.
(with agency input)
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