Ottawa: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has shown no signs of stepping down even as his Liberal Party suffered a humiliating loss in a byelection, the second time in three months, which raised more questions about his capability of leading the Liberals into the next federal election. Liberal candidate Laura Palestini was defeated by the separatist Bloc Quebecois candidate, Louis-Philippe Sauve, in the electoral district of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun in Montreal on Monday.
Election Canada results show the Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauve finished with 28 per cent of the vote. Liberal candidate Laura Palestini collected 27.2 per cent and finished just 248 votes behind the winner. The NDP collected 26.1 per cent and was about 600 votes behind the winner. In June, the Conservatives narrowly defeated the Liberals in Toronto-St. Paul's in Toronto.
“Obviously it would have been nicer to be able to win . . . but there's more work to do,” Trudeau said in Ottawa on Tuesday. "The big thing is to make sure that Canadians understand the choice they get to make in the next election. That's the work we're going to continue to do." The result will put more focus on the political future of Trudeau, who has become increasingly unpopular after almost nine years in office.
A major blow for Liberals
Monday's loss “is a major blow for the Liberals,” said Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal. In the 2021 general election, the Liberals won the Montreal seat with 43 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Bloc Quebecois at 22 per cent and the NDP at 19 per cent. Trudeau had suggested voters may react to anger over elevated prices and a housing crisis.
"Not only did this not happen, they lost by nearly 16 percentage points in popular votes compared to their score in the riding back in 2021, when they had easily won there," said Beland. Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal supporter and strategist, said the election loss was "yet another nail in Justin Trudeau's coffin" and the party's prospects across Canada are in trouble.
Trudeau's popularity has sagged as voters struggle with a surge in the cost of living and a housing crisis that has been fueled in part by a spike in arrivals of temporary residents including foreign students and workers. He suffered a major setback earlier this month Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party (NDP), a key ally keeping his Liberal Party in power, unexpectedly withdrew support from a supply-and-confidence agreement.
Can Trudeau be removed from power?
Polls suggest that the Liberals will lose badly to the right-of-centre Conservatives of Pierre Poilievre in the next federal election. Trudeau insists he will lead the party into an election that must be held by the end of October 2025, but some Liberal legislators have broken ranks to call for change at the top.
Alexandra Mendes, a Liberal lawmaker who represents a Quebec constituency, said last week that many of her constituents wanted Trudeau to go. The mandate for Trudeau's minority government expires at the end of October 2025, but an early election has become increasingly likely after the smaller New Democratic Party dropped its support and the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are mulling a no-confidence motion against the 52-year-old leader.
However, Trudeau is showing no signs of stepping down. He and his closest aides say he is going nowhere and has time to help the party recover. As per Canadian norms, Trudeau was selected by a special convention of party members and cannot be forced out if he wants to stay. Even if party members ask him to leave, a Liberal member said there was no guarantee that Trudeau, a stubborn man as per insiders, would listen.
(with inputs from agencies)
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