India’s NSG entry: Why Switzerland’s support could be a game changer
India is assiduously trying to get entry into the coveted Nuclear Suppliers Group.
New Delhi: India is assiduously trying to get entry into the coveted Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leaving no stone unturned in convincing those nations who have reservations over India’s membership to the 48-member group.
What is ironical is the fact that India is seeking entry into a group which was actually formed as a reaction to its own nuclear test on 18 May 1974.
It was after ‘Smiling Budha’ (codename for Pokharan- I) test of 1974 that Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) came into existence in 1975.
Since India was not a signatory of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Pokharan-I tests caused deep anxieties among those who had already signed NPT. These countries felt the need to further limit the export of nuclear equipment, materials and technology and NSG was formed with the same objectives in mind. All members of NSG, except France, were signatories to NPT. France signed NPT in 1992 along with China.
Things changed for India in 2008 when US administration under the then President George Bush junior signed a civil nuclear deal with New Delhi and sought one-time waiver from the NSG. Under this deal, India’s nuclear programme was separated into civilian and military ones and the two countries agreed to expedite cooperation in civilian field.
There is a belief in New Delhi that it’s primarily because of China that India is not getting entry into NSG but this is not exactly the case. It’s true that owing to the regional rivalry, China does not want India to occupy a seat at the high-table especially when it has apprehensions of US deliberately propping up New Delhi, both economically as well as militarily, as Beijing’s counterweight in Asia.
However, there are many other nations, apart from China, that are not comfortable with the idea of a country like India, a non-signatory to NPT, getting easy entry into NSG.
And prior to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Geneva visit, Switzerland was one of them. In fact, when US pushed for one-time waiver for India in the aftermath of 2008 civil nuclear deal, China was not the only country to have opposed the request for one-time waiver. Switzerland along with Austria, Ireland and Newzealand had also opposed the move.
It’s a different matter that hectic diplomatic efforts on part of US paved the way for one-time waiver to India. It is believed that the then US President George Bush and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice personally reached out to heads of governments of opposing states which resulted in NSG finally giving green signal to the one-time waiver. To persuade China, President Bush had himself called up the Chinese President Hu Jintao.
Switzerland’s support to India for NSG becomes extremely significant against this backdrop. Switzerland is known for its strong anti-proliferation stand and if Prime Minister Narendra Modi has succeeded in winning their support for NSG then it’s no mean achievement indeed.
And Switzerland’s timely support can have cascading effect as well. Other European countries which are opposed to India’s entry into NSG may think afresh on their stand and follow the precedent set by Switzerland.
Unlike China, countries like Norway and the Netherlands have no regional or economic rivalry with India and their opposition to India’s entry into NSG is purely a matter of their strong stand on NPT.
Since India’s record on proliferation is impeccable, it should not be very difficult to win their support after the change of stand by another important European country like Switzerland. Same is the case with Mexico which PM Modi will be visiting soon.
And if these important countries drop their opposition to India’s entry into NSG, where would that leave China?
In fact, China has never wanted to be seen as opposing India because of its regional rivalries or fear of US propping up New Delhi as a counterweight to Beijing. China always avoids stretching things to a point where it runs the risk of getting isolated internationally. The Chinese know that any such act on their pact may force India to openly join hands with US in Asia.
Therefore, if all European countries drop their reservations on India’s entry into NSG, it will be difficult for China to veto it. It has to be recalled that all decisions of NSG group are taken by consensus and it means that every country has a kind of veto power.
This is not to say that China will not try its best to create roadblocks. Of course, it will. To scuttle India’s chances, China is already pushing Pakistan’s case for entry into NSG. China says that if non-NPT signatories like India can be inducted then when can’t Pakistan? But this line of reasoning will not stand test of time for very long. The entire word knows that Pakistan has a poor record on non-proliferation and that it can’t be compared with India.
If Switzerland’s support encourages other European countries to soften their stand then China will be left with no other option than to fall in line, sooner or later.
As things stand today, India may not get immediate entry into NSG. It may have to wait beyond June 9 meet of NSG in Vienna or the NSG plenary session to be held in Seoul from June 23-24.
However, Switzerland’s support means a lot for India as far as its quest for NSG entry is concerned. It has the potential of changing the game in favour of India, slowly but surely.