The coronavirus cases in the national capital have crossed the one-lakh milestone but there is one aspect that gives Delhiites several hopes. The number of active cases is dipping as is the positivity rate while the recovery rate is going up, signaling a possible flattening of the curve if trends continue. One of the major players behind this is aggressive testing. As testing is significantly ramped up, the death rate has also fallen marginally and the projected explosion of cases has also not happened yet.
NUMBER OF CASES
The city recorded its first COVID-19 case on March 1. Three months later, the number of cases is 1,07,051 with 3,258 fatalities, according to the Union Health Ministry. However, 82,226 cases have recovered and 21,567 cases are still active. The number of active figures is the lowest in 28 days.
The peak came on June 23 when the city recorded 3,947 fresh cases. The next three days saw 3,000 cases each. But later the figures dropped. Between June 27 to July 3, the average fresh cases per day was 2,494 compared to 3,446 cases the previous week. The trend has continued -- July 4 (2,505), July 5 (2,244), July 6 (1,379), July 7 (2,008), July 8 (2,033) and July 9 (2,187).
AGGRESSIVE TESTING
Increased testing and wider public engagement may have helped the Arvind Kejriwal-led government largely. The number of tests has also gone up sharply – from 5,500 tests per day in the first week of June to 11,000 by mid-June and 21,000 by July. The increased testing seemed to increase the number of cases, thereafter helping in timely tracing and identifying those infected with COVID-19. Meanwhile, the number of hospital beds also increased. Till early June, there were only 8 private hospitals treating coronavirus patients. These had a total of 700 beds. This was in addition to 2,500 beds in Delhi government hospitals. Later, as the cases rose and people panicked, the Kejriwal government ordered all private hospitals with more than 50 beds to reserve 40 percent of beds for COVID patients. Hotels were also linked to private hospitals thereby increasing bed capacity of hospitals. The number of beds in private hospitals went up from 5,000 to 7,000, as stated by the Delhi government.
RISING RECOVERY RATE
On July 5, the recovery rate was 71.74 percent, up from 63.32 percent the week before it. This was better than the national recovery rate of 60.7 per cent. Also, the death rate in Delhi fell marginally to 3.08 percent on July 5 vis-a-vis 3.16 percent the previous week.
Also, the positivity rate in the national capital has been consistently going down as well - from 31 percent in the June 8-14 week to 11 percent in June 29-July 5 week.
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