"Conditions should begin to deteriorate soon over India's eastern coastal area. Landfall (worst conditions) in 12-15 hours (~6pm India time)
The cyclone has strengthened at one of the fastest rates ever recorded, going from a tropical storm to a category 4 cyclone in only 24 hours.
On Friday (Oct. 11), it became the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane—the strongest on the American scale—with sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph). That official wind speed has tied Phailin with the devastating 1999 Orissa Cyclone which killed more than 10,000 people—currently India's strongest storm ever.
Storm surge is by far Phailin's biggest threat to lives along India's coastline. Ocean levels may rise as much as 6 meters (20 feet) near and to the northeast of the storm's landfall location, pushing an inexorable wall of water inland.
Storm surge of nearly 3 meters may stretch as far northeast as the vulnerable Ganges Delta of Bangladesh—home to tens of millions. The JTWC estimates that waves of up to 17 meters (56 feet) are already buffeting the Bay of Bengal.
The storm may also bring nearly one meter of additional rainfall to inland areas.
Phailin is now forecast to break the Indian Ocean intensity record set by the 1999 Cyclone just prior to its Saturday landfall, according to the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii:
Even if Phailin doesn't manage to hold the intensity record, the storm surge will be immense.
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