Explained: What will be Putin's strategy after expected landslide victory in Russian elections?

Russian presidential elections: To no one's surprise, Russian President Vladimir Putin extended his rule by six years after a landslide victory in the recent presidential elections. Facing only token challengers, Putin's victory was widely expected in the elections marred by a crackdown on the opposition, dissent against the war in Ukraine and independent media, leaving the voters with hardly any choice.

The former KGB lieutenant colonel, who first rose to power in 1999, won more than 87 per cent of the votes, according to different estimates, meaning that Putin will overtake Soviet leader Joseph Stalin and become Russia's longest-serving leader for over 200 years. The US, Germany, the UK and other countries have said the vote was neither free nor fair due to the imprisonment of political opponents and censorship.

Speaking just after his electoral victory, Putin raised the stakes of his tensions with the West, saying that a direct conflict between Russia and the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military alliance would be "one step away from World War Three", but saying that nobody wanted such a scenario. Notably, the Ukraine war has triggered the deepest plunge in the relations between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missiles Crisis in the Cold War period.

The sharp post-election rhetoric has raised the stakes for Western countries regarding the support of Ukraine, as Putin's position is expected to harden over what his administration calls a "special military operation" in Kyiv. During his address, Putin said he was open to talks on Ukraine, but a solution would have to take Russian security interests into account.

Putin's soaring popularity in Russia

The results of the predictable elections underscore that Putin remains a widely popular leader in Russia, despite imposing a severe crackdown on opposition figures like the late Alexei Navalny - most opposition leaders are either dead, imprisoned or have fled the country. The war in Ukraine has helped him to tighten his grip on power and boost his popularity with Russians.

Ahead of the elections, Putin's approval rating to 86 per cent, up from 71 per cent before the invasion of Ukraine, according to the Levada Centre. Putin's rating also jumped during the 2008 war with Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Russian television and a sophisticated social media operation project Putin as a robust patriot and deride Western leaders such as US President Joe Biden as weak, foolish and deceitful.

Putin has described the Ukraine war as an existential battle with a declining West after what he calls a humiliation for Russia during the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, accusing the West of encroaching on Moscow's 'sphere of influence'. This has appealed to many Russians who are suspicious about the West's politics and intentions.

What does Putin's victory mean for the war?

The recently held presidential elections were cast as a moment by the Kremlin for Russia to throw their full weight behind the war in Ukraine. As the West struggles to financially and militarily assist Ukraine, Putin's victory means that he is expected to double down on his efforts to ensure a win for the Russian troops battling there.

Putin told volunteers after the polls closed that the election results will allow the Russian society to consolidate and become stronger and this unity will help the country to "act effectively on the frontline".

“Of course, we have lots of tasks ahead. But I want to make it clear for everyone: When we were consolidated, no one has ever managed to frighten us, to suppress our will and our self-conscience. They failed in the past and they will fail in the future,” Putin said.

“In general the initiative is fully on the side of the Russian army. In some directions, our guys are butchering the enemy. We are advancing every day. Gradually, very delicately. But every day. This is a bit more than active defence. But we all see this anyway," he said during his remarks. Asked if he considered it necessary to take Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Putin said if the attacks continued, Russia would create a buffer zone out of more Ukrainian territory to defend Russian territory.

The Russian President asserted that he would prioritise resolving tasks associated with what he called Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine and would strengthen the Russian military. He said his armed forces were advancing in Ukraine every day on the battlefield. His statements indicate that Russian aggression is likely to escalate in Ukraine.

Russia's relations with the West

The US is the most staunch adversary for the Russians, having supplied billions of dollars worth of aid, weapons and intelligence in assistance for Ukraine. Relations between Putin and Biden particularly have been thorny, with the latter terming the Russian President as a "murderous dictator" and a "pure thug". Although Russia's rivalry won't go away with a change of US presidency, it is expected that the return of ex-President Donald Trump might soften tensions in that regard.

Trump has repeatedly praised Putin and said he would openly encourage attacks by Russia on European countries that failed to spend enough money on defence. During his presidency, Trump met Putin and rejected allegations that the latter had interfered in the 2016 US presidential elections. While Trump has praised the Kremlin leader, Putin has also criticised the criminal cases against Trump, calling them "politically motivated".

Putin recently said he would prefer Biden over Trump as the next President, but it was widely interpreted to mean the opposite, as the former KGB colonel hopes his notoriety would boost the prospects of the Republican frontrunner. Trump has also claimed to stop the war in Ukraine within days.

As far as European countries are concerned, their position on the war has been allied with the US in helping Ukraine. European Union countries agreed this week to provide $5.48 billion for military aid to Ukraine as its forces struggle against Russia's invasion after a failed counteroffensive last year. Most countries, with the exception of Hungary, have sparked concerns that Russia might attack NATO-affiliated states and have prioritised defence spending.

These tensions are likely to mount as Sweden and Finland have now joined NATO, marking the biggest alliance expansion since the 1990s. The military alliance also wants Ukraine to join, although stiff Russian opposition and the war are preventing it from doing so. Another component of these tensions pertains to the expansionist desires of both Russia and the European Union. Putin has even threatened to send troops to the borders of Finland and Poland if they get in his way in the war.

Putin's relations with India and Global South

Russia maintains strongly positive relations with India, and Putin shares a friendly bond with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Post his victory, PM Modi congratulated Putin and said he looked forward to working together to "further strengthen the time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership" between the two countries.

In 2022, PM Modi even told Putin in a famous statement that "this is not an era of war" in reference to the Ukraine conflict. On several occasions, the Russian President has been full of praise for India's foreign policy and leadership under PM Modi and even invited him to Russia. This shows that the war has not affected India-Russia ties and they are expected to remain friendly in the future. 

India has openly rebuffed calls to boycott Russia and said that it is unwilling to have a "European perspective of Russia". Putin himself said the relations between India and Russia are developing progressively under all trajectories under PM Modi's guarantee. This budding relationship is expected to further strengthen as Putin's rule extends till 2030.

Russia is also positioning itself as a 'face of the Global South' by maintaining alliances with Vietnam, Hungary, Serbia, Turkey, Egypt and most importantly - China. After winning the elections, Putin on Sunday said that Russia's relations with China would become even stronger in the coming years.  The war had pushed the two countries closer and China became Russia's biggest energy buyer, while Russia's reliance on Chinese products. Chinese President Xi Jinping also congratulated Putin on his victory and promised to promote the "no limits" partnership they agreed on in 2022.

 

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