Who is KP Sharma Oli and how his upcoming government will impact India-Nepal ties?

KP Sharma Oli, who gave a tough time to India under his premiership but was forced to step down from power in a hard-hitting decision by Nepal's Supreme Court, has made a stunning comeback into the politically fragile Himalayan nation as he is set to become the Prime Minister for the fourth time with the help of Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba. His victory came as incumbent PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal lost the vote of confidence on Friday, his fifth trust vote in 19 months of his power.

At the beginning of this month, Oli, the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), had a secret meeting with Deuba's Nepali Congress and decided to form a new "national consensus government" aimed at ousting the government and seemingly to bring stability in the political landscape of Nepal. Barely four months after joining Prachanda's government, Oli's party withdrew support and called on Dahal to step down from power.

Dahal put up a valiant effort and refused to resign, calling for yet another trust vote in the Parliament that he was expected to lose. In the end, Dahal's CPN-Maoist Centre could only get 63 votes in the 275-member House of Representatives, much below than the magic number of 138 required to win the confidence vote. There were 194 votes against Dahal's motion of confidence, as major parties stood against it.

The NC has 89 seats in Nepal's House of Representatives, while CPN-UML has 78. Their combined strength of 167 is much more than the 138 required for a majority in the lower house. Oli has now staked his claim to become the PM and form the next government with the support of 165 lawmakers, including 77 from his own party and 88 from the Nepali Congress, along with the aid of fringe parties.

Who is KP Sharma Oli?

KP Sharma Oli has a tumultuous political career marred by frequent clashes with neighbouring India. He was born in the Terhathum District in Eastern Nepal as the eldest son of Mohan Prasad and Madhumaya Oli on February 23, 1952, and began his political career at the age of 14 in 1966. He joined the Communist Party of Nepal in 1970 and was arrested for subversive acts and jailed for 14 years.

Oli was heavily influenced by the philosophies of Marx and Lenin and also spearheaded the Jhapa rebellion which marked a key moment in Nepal's Communist movement, going from its ideological stance to a full-fledged armed revolt. Oli was released from jail in 1987 after receiving a royal pardon. He became the founding central leader of CPN-UML in 1991.

Oli gained prominence in the 1990s for his efforts in bringing down the Panchayat regime. After steadily building his career by assuming various prestigious positions in the party, like chief of parliamentary affairs and deputy leader of the main opposition party, Oli was appointed as the Deputy PM in the interim government led by then-Prime Minister GP Koirala.

Having become a key leader in Nepal politics, Oli was sworn in as the Prime Minister on October 12, 2015, after winning 338 out of 597 votes. However, he was later forced to resign after the CPN-Maoist Centre withdrew its support and he lost a no-confidence motion in the Parliament. He later became PM again in 2018 in alliance with Prachanda's party but was mired in controversy over the centralisation of power, resulting in Dahal withdrawing support. 

Oli abruptly dissolved Parliament in 2020 and called for fresh elections, which was received by outrage among all parties but gained support from the President. The Supreme Court nullified this decision in a landmark ruling, and Oli later lost another vote of confidence in 2021, becoming a minority PM till the elections in November that year.

Oli's position towards India

As Prime Minister, Oli asserted a nationalist rhetoric and took a hardline stance against India over the border dispute, trade and more, particularly during the 2015 Nepal blockade, which he blamed on Indian interference. Oli also pursued closer relations with China and engaged with Beijing on projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

Relations between India and Nepal were strained particularly when Oli claimed that the areas of Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura were part of the Nepalese territory in 2019, creating a major row with New Delhi to fend off domestic pressure. Nepal's upper house of the Parliament unanimously passed the Constitution amendment bill in May 2020 which included the country's new political map in its national emblem.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated an 80-km-long strategically crucial road connecting the Lipulekh pass with Dharchula in Uttarakhand in May 2020. Nepal reacted sharply to the inauguration of the road claiming that it passed through Nepalese territory. India rejected the claim asserting that the road lies completely within its territory. India has sternly asked Nepal not to resort to any "artificial enlargement" of territorial claims.

The bilateral exchanges that had stalled due to the bitter boundary dispute were reset in the later part of 2020 with a series of high-level visits, as New Delhi emphasised that it sees itself as the Himalayan nation's "foremost friend" and development partner. Despite his hardline stance on relations with India, Oli has acknowledged New Delhi as a valuable developmental partner and has vowed to strike a balance in relations with India and China.

Oli's comeback as PM

Oli and Deuba met earlier this month to lay the ground for a potential new political alliance between the two parties, following which Oli's CPN-UML ended its association with the Prachanda-led government barely four months after extending support to it. Under the agreement, Oli will lead a new ‘national consensus government' for a year and a half and Deuba will be the prime minister for the remaining term till the next election.

As Oli is taking back the helm of the government, the CPN-UML has said Nepal can attain economic prosperity only by maintaining close friendly relations with India and that it will not allow any anti-India activity on its soil. A senior party leader said Oli wants to take Nepal-India relations to a new height to attract foreign investment, promote trade and attain economic prosperity.

Nepal shares a border of over 1,850 km with five Indian states – Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The Himalayan nation is important for India in the context of its overall strategic interests in the region and has invested heavily in its infrastructure. The leaders of the two countries have often noted the age-old “Roti Beti” relationship.