Explained | Why does Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu want Indian security personnel out?

After becoming the Maldives President, Mohamed Muizzu formally requested India to withdraw its military personnel from the country, during a meeting with Union Minister Kiren Rijiju. Widely considered a pro-China leader, Muizzu took the oath as President on November 17 (Friday).

"The President noted that at the Presidential Election held in September, the Maldivian people had given him a strong mandate to make the request to India and expressed the hope that India will honour the democratic will of the people of the Maldives," a statement from Maldives President's Office said.

India and the Maldives agreed to discuss 'workable solutions' to continue the use of Indian military platforms in the archipelago as they serve the interests of both countries, said government sources on the meeting between Rijiju and Muizzu.

Now that Muizzu has demanded the expulsion of 77 Indian personnel and also ordered a review of 100 agreements with India, concerns have emerged that the India-Maldives relationship is taking a turn for the worse.

Muizzu had built his entire presidential campaign against former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who had maintained friendly ties with India and bilateral ties between both sides marked a significant uptick under his presidency. The Maldives also remains one of the biggest beneficiaries of India's Neighbourhood First policy. What is the issue and what implication does Muizzu's stance have on the relations now?

Who is Mohamed Muizzu?

Muizzu won a surprising victory in the presidential elections held in late September, as he entered the fray as an underdog and was named as a fallback candidate. This came after the Maldivian Supreme Court prevented his party, the People's National Congress' chief Abdullah Yameen, from contesting the elections as he is serving a prison sentence for money laundering and corruption.

Muizzu defeated incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih by over 18,000 votes and secured 53% of the overall votes. Neither of the candidates managed to get more than 50% of the votes in the first round of voting.

Throughout his presidential campaign, Muizzu promised to expel Indian military personnel from the 500,000-people island nation, claiming that it impacts the sovereignty of the country. 

Before Yameen, former President Mohamed Nasheed pursued India-friendly policies. When Muizzu's Progressive Alliance was in power from 2013 to 2017 under Yameen, it pursued a heavily pro-China strategy by building a free trade agreement with Beijing and participating in President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road project (BRI).

This was seen as China seeking to deepen its influence in Asia and Africa. However, it saw a reversal in Maldives in 2018, when Solih won and took India-Maldives ties to new levels. This tug-of-war of influence has made Maldives a geopolitical hotspot.

India-Maldives partnership

The Maldives is one of India's key maritime neighbours in the Indian Ocean Region and occupies a special place in the Prime Minister’s vision of ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region). India's relations with the Maldives go back much earlier than China's, which is considered a fairly recent player.

India's assistance and platforms have contributed significantly to public welfare, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and in combating illegal maritime activities in the island nation, according to the Ministry of External Affairs.

India was the first country to assist Maldives during a failed coup in 1988 and two devastating tsunamis in 2004 and 2014. The largest partner in trade and tourism, India has embarked on a crucial Greater Malé Connectivity Project, which seeks to connect the capital to nearby islands. 

India has offered bilateral and development assistance to the island country, such as the establishment of a medical complex in the capital Male, providing humanitarian relief in disasters, establishing a robust trade partnership and investment in several infrastructural projects. India has also constructed numerous parks, hospitals, community centres, and schools for civilians.

India has also supplied aircraft, choppers, sea ambulances, a landing craft assault ship, and interceptor boats to the Maldives, while also training numerous Maldivian defence officials over the last decade and conducting joint exercises like surveillance operations, Ekatha and others. India has played a vital role in the economic development of Maldives as well, particularly investing over $2 billion in infrastructure in Maldives 

India and the Maldives also deepened cooperation when New Delhi helped develop a harbour on the Uthuru Thilafalhu (UTF) atoll for the Maldivian Coast Guard. While discussing the matter with Rijiju, even Muizzu acknowledged the significant role of the two helicopters in providing numerous emergency medical evacuations in the Maldives.

Yameen's anti-India policy

On the other hand, Yameen's government borrowed much from China during their years, causing a crippling debt crisis. He refused to renew an agreement with India and, like Muizzu, demanded Indian security personnel to leave. He was ousted a few months later.

Although there have been some controversies as well. Under Solih's presidency, an 'India Out' campaign, speculated to be launched by members of Yameen's party, gathered steam in the Maldives when allegations emerged of a large military contingent to the country, which was rejected by the Solih government. India sought action from the Maldives on the 'malicious and personal' attacks against the Indian High Commission. 

A lot of the anti-Indian sentiment is believed to have emerged during the pro-China Yameen's government as some party leaders claimed that while they did not have any personal problems with India, they believed that some 'boundaries were overstepped' in issues regarding national security and sovereignty.

What will happen to India-Maldives relations?

Maldives holds great importance for both India and China, as it lies on the way of cargo shipping lines and is considered a gateway of geopolitical influence over the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), which has witnessed a growing belligerence by China in recent times. It is, however, unpredictable with rampant crime and corruption in domestic politics.

India has maintained that Maldives remains a steadfast partner in the fight against terrorism and maritime security. The fight for influence in the IOR stems from the change in foreign policies of many countries to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Maldives leaning towards China will put it at odds with other countries who are battling the rising aggression by Beijing authorities in the continent and on the South China Sea. It has also generated fears that Muizzu's pro-China stance will impact Indian projects, as the government is expected to prefer Chinese companies.

However, former Maldives foreign minister, Ahmed Shaheed, contended that Solih's loss was a "public revolt" against the government's failure to meet economic and governance expectations rather than concerns over Indian influence.

Furthermore, India is also expected to engage with the Maldives diplomatically to work on the best course of cooperation. Leaning too much on China would also not be in favour of Maldives with the changing security situation in the IOR and the rising strength of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).

India is geopolitically closer in proximity to the island nation and given its past of being a first responder and provider of defence and essential supplies, the diplomatic community is likely to side against him should he adopt a strong anti-India stance. Analysts have argued that Muizzu might be forced to tone down his rhetoric.

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