Why is Japan's population declining for 15 consecutive years? EXPLAINED in numbers

Japan is currently grappling with a population crisis - as recent government data showed that the country has registered a decline of over half a million (531,700) people in 2023. The number of births in 2023 reached a record low at 730,000, while deaths in Japan also reached a record high at 1.58 million. Japan's total population was 124.9 million as of January 1, according to the Internal Affairs Ministry

The data also showed that the 11 per cent increase in foreign residents helped their population surpass 3 million for the first time. They now make up nearly 3 per cent of the total population and are mostly of working age from 15 to 64. Unlike other developed countries with low fertility rates, Japan and other nations have been reluctant to use immigration for their population concerns.

It is important to mention that Japan is not the only country facing low fertility rates and high mortality rates, as a similar situation is prevalent in neighbouring countries like China, Taiwan and South Korea. Additionally, South Korea has the world's lowest fertility rate, which further fell to a record low in 2023 despite billions of dollars in government schemes designed to encourage families to have more children.

What do statistics say?

Japan, the 12th most-populous is struggling to cope up with a rapidly ageing population primarily because of a low birth rate and changing lifestyles. The population began to decline after peaking at 128 million in 2008, registering 125 million in 2022 and 124.9 million in 2023. According to the East Asia Forum, Japan's population is projected to decline to 63 million by 2100 if this trend continues.

The number of births - 730,000 - is the lowest since the survey by the Interior Ministry began in 1979. Japan’s birth rate declined from 9.5 births per 1000 women in 2000 to 6.8 per 1000 in 2020. The mortality rate exceeded the birth rate by a huge margin with 1.58 million deaths, thus contributing to the negative growth.

Furthermore, the sex ratio in Japan is 0.949 as of December 31, 2023 - 949 males per 1,000 females, which means that there are larger number of females (64 million) as compared to males (61 million) in Japan. The proportion of the population aged over 65 increased from 17.4 per cent in 2000 to 29.0 per cent in 2022 and is projected to rise to 41.2 per cent in 2100.

Foreign nationals with Japanese residency numbered 3.32 million as of January 1, an 11 per cent increase from 329,535 in 2023. All 47 prefectures saw an increase in their foreign populations in 2023, with Tokyo and Osaka recording the largest jumps in both years. On the other hand, the population of Japanese citizens fell last year by 861,237 to 121.6 million, according to Wednesday's data.

Why is Japan's population declining?

The primary reasons for the rapidly ageing population are low birth rates and changing lifestyles and perspectives regarding marriage. Surveys show that younger Japanese are increasingly reluctant to marry or have children, discouraged by bleak job prospects, the high cost of living — which rises at a faster pace than salaries — and a gender-biased corporate culture that adds a burden only on women and working mothers.

The high cost-of-living is particularly problematic for low-income households. According to a report on household income by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the average disposable income of a household headed by a non-regular worker is approximately 60 per cent of one headed by a regular worker. 

Additionally, now women have entered the workforce in strong numbers and society has begun to accept diversity, which has resulted in a decline in marriage rates. Moreover, Japan remains a highly patriarchal society in which married women are often expected to take the caregiver role, despite government efforts to get husbands more involved.

What is Japan's future?

These issues have far-reaching consequences for Japan’s workforce, economy, welfare systems and social fabric. The country's industries are feeling labour shortages; jobs are hard to fill, with fewer young adults entering the workforce; some rural communities are dying out, with one village that went 25 years without any new births, according to CNN.

The government has spent years pushing various initiatives to encourage marriage and childbirth, such as enhancing childcare services or offering housing subsidies. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called the trend the "gravest crisis our country faces", and unveiled a range of steps supporting child-bearing households late last year. So far, they have not been effective. Japan is also becoming increasingly reliant on foreign workers, implementing new visa rules.

If the trend continues, Japan will likely feel the blow to its pension and health care systems, and other social infrastructure that is difficult to maintain with a shrinking workforce. Its population will likely decline by about 30 per cent to 87 million by 2070, with four out of every 10 people aged 65 or older, according to estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

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