Bangladesh unrest: Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and its potential impact on relations with India | EXPLAINED

An unprecedented moment in Bangladesh's history of assassinated leaders, military coups and violent protests would be the recent ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday (August 5) following the massive anti-government agitation that initially began against the quota system in government jobs, but spiralled out of control into nationwide unrest demanding the 76-year-old's ouster.

Further complicating the matters is that the 'Iron Lady', who is currently in India, may have nowhere else to go. The United States had already revoked her visa after years of a troubled relationship, and her plans to seek political asylum in the UK have hit a roadblock after the Home Office said there is ‘no provision for someone to be allowed to travel to the UK for asylum or temporary refuge.’

Hasina's ouster and the formation of an interim government in Bangladesh is not something India is expected to take well, as Hasina had been a crucial ally of New Delhi in South Asia. India is right to be concerned as it is now surrounded by neighbours who are either distancing themselves from Delhi, are mired in domestic troubles, or are outrightly hostile. The recent developments in Bangladesh have posed as another challenge to maintain its influence in the Global South.

Hasina's 15-year-old reign came to a sudden and chaotic end when tens and thousands of people marched towards Dhaka demanding her ouster. After resisting for some time, Hasina took the heavy decision of stepping down after discussions with her sister and son. This was quite a fall from grace for the veteran Bangladeshi leader, who had come a long way from her family's assassination to restoring political stability and strengthening the flailing economy.

Hasina's political career, which began in the shadow of her father, ultimately led her to become one of the world's longest-serving female heads of government. Under her leadership, Bangladesh saw notable economic growth, infrastructure development, and an improved global standing. However, her critics often accused her of authoritarianism and 'autocratic tendencies'. Her relationship with the US also faltered as Washington claimed human rights violations and unfair electoral practices.

In all highs and lows, Sheikh Hasina's relationship with India grew to new heights. After her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his family were murdered by military officers in 1975, Hasina and her sister took refuge in India and had a strong relationship with the Gandhi family. After she came to power, Hasina accomodated many of India's interests in her policies and was particularly favoured by Hindus. Her recent ouster has left India deprived of a strong friend in the immediate neighbourhood and leaves Delhi's foreign policy, as well as Bangladesh's politics, in muddy waters.

Under Sheikh Hasina, India-Bangladesh relations advanced in cross-border trade, transit arrangements, security collaboration and people-to-people exchanges. She visited India in the same month twice in June, once to attend Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in and another to further boost bilateral ties. During her last visit, PM Modi announced that India will begin an e-medical visa facility for Bangladeshis coming to India for medical treatment, as well as a new Assistant High Commission in Rangpur will be launched.

"India is our major neighbour, trusted friend and regional partner. Bangladesh greatly values our relations with India, which were born during our war of liberation in 1971 and the friendship has remained unbreakable," Hasina said on the occasion, while inviting PM Modi for a visit. Both sides also decided to initiate technical-level talks on the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty.

That National Security Advisor Ajit Doval would personally receive Hasina after she arrived at the Hindon Airbase in Ghaziabad underscores the significance of the relationship. India, sharing ethnic and cultural ties with Bangladesh, had supported Hasina and her Awami League despite criticism from major allies and the domestic opposition, and her recent removal leaves India-Bangladesh ties in the balance.

Contrary to Hasina, India's relations with the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by ex-PM Khaleda Zia, have been far from smooth. Even before that, her husband Ziaur Rahman had distanced his government from close ties with India, contrary to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's stance. Under Zia, anti-India activities grew significantly and the attacks on the Hindu community grew.

India faced challenges related to cross-border terrorism and repeatedly expressed concern over the activities of Islamist terrorist groups operating from Bangladesh when the BNP was in power. India's close ties with the Awami League also created perceptions that it was supporting Hasina's political interests and interfering in Bangladesh, creating resentment in Dhaka's political and military elite.

The BNP recently held an 'India Out' campaign before the January elections, encouraging citizens to boycott Indian products. The matter escalated when senior BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi threw away a famous Kashmiri shawl he was wearing around his shoulders. As the possibility of an incoming BNP government in Bangladesh grows, India has several reasons to be concerned, involving China, Pakistan and Hasina herself.

The PM Modi-led government's first priority would be to address the violence against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, as some protesters resorted to attacking temples, businesses and houses belonging to the Hindu community there. India has to prepare for an incoming BNP government, which is allied to the now-banned Jamaat-e-Islami Party, which has links to Pakistan and is known for a rise in extremist violence.

Furthermore, India may consider distancing itself from Hasina to some extent as it needs to prepare to work with the next government in Bangladesh. As India is likely reaching out to the military establishment to maintain some influence in the country - the anti-India sentiment may act as a roadblock. India may also be faced with changes in a number of transit agreements with Bangladesh by the next government.

India must also grapple with the possibility that China and Pakistan, India's top foes, may try to exert influence in Bangladesh. Even under Hasina, Bangladesh's ties with China had been warming as it sought a range of military equipment, including submarines and fighter jets. Bangladesh is also a part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. The return of the Jamaat-e-Islami may also pave the way for Pakistan's entry in Bangladesh politics, something that Hasina had kept out.

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