Rs 1300 crore loss expected at Bollywood box office due to coronavirus lockdown

With the coronavirus cases increasing rapidly, the world is fearing a global recession. India’s Hindi entertainment industry — one of the biggest in the world is expected to face a huge loss of an estimated Rs 1300 cr. According to the report in Hindustan Times, the film business will suffer massively as the 12 big films which were supposed to release in March-April are postponed.  Based on factors like the number of shows and screens, the actors starring in the film, the previous work of the directors, the release period, and even consumer sentiment with the film, HT reports that many trade analysts believe that Rs 1300 crore is just the estimated number and can rise as well. The publication quoted Trade Analyst Atul Mohan saying, “In the last two years, the industry made around Rs 850-900 crore in net collections in the quarter April to June. We’re definitely losing that amount.”

Not just in India, the release of the films has been stalled all around the world. The report states that since the International markets like the UAE, United States of America, United Kingdom, Australia, and Fiji account for approximately 30 to 40% of a film’s overall box office collection, the industry is set to witness a huge loss.

With the number of Fridays left in this year, Bollywood films will 'eat each other' for a release and box office collection will witness a tough competition. Big films like Sooryavanshi, Radhe, 83 and others have already worked hard to avoid a clash with each other. 

Talking about the upcoming big weekend, let's have a look at the expected box office collection now-

May 22: Salman Khan's Radhe and Akshay Kumar’s Laxxmi Bomb

When two big superstars like Salman Khan and Akshay Kumar collide at the box office, fans are already in for a hard time chosing which one to pick. According to the report, the weekend collection of both films was pegged at a conservative estimate of Rs 175 crore but now that the films have completed yet due to the lockdown, there is little hope that they will release on May 22.

HT quoted Taran Adarsh saying, “Even if say that the total business for each of the films (Radhe and Laxxmi Bomb) is Rs 200 crore, cumulatively that would mean Rs 400 crore, and this is when the business is going right. In the Eid weekend alone, the films could have made Rs 175-200 crore. That’s what we are looking to lose on that particular weekend.”

According to Atul Mohan, the film industry was expecting to make Rs 500 crore in net collections in March based only on the three big releases: Baaghi 3, Sooryavanshi and Angrezi Medium. But the outbreak of COVID-19 left the box office hanging. Tiger Shroff's Baaghi 3 managed to rake in Rs 92 crore after being made on a budget of Rs 70 crore, on the other hand, Irrfan's Angrezi Medium witnessed a hard blow as it released just a few days before the situation became worse in the country. On the second day of the release of the film, theaters in many states were shut down.

On March 15, the film bodies took the decision of stopping shooting in all formats - television, web or film — till March 31. It was important to take the decision at that time because the coronavirus cases have only been increasing in the country since then. On March 24, PM Modi announced a 21-day national lockdown that will end only on April 15. This means that the moratorium to shoot stands extended.

Film Distributor Akshaye Rathi told HT, “We obviously have lost the summer holidays, which is an important period for movies, not just in India but also globally. These big films have a significant revenue from the overseas markets as well, and considering how the situation is, I don’t see them coming out till the time global markets really opens up because makers won’t compromise on that front.”

“When this outbreak started, we predicted losses of approx Rs 600 to 900 crore for the industry, but now, it’s uncertain. If you notice, the statements issued by production houses or filmmakers only say they’re postponing the release, but there’s no date. Because nobody can say for sure. It could be June, July or August,” Taran Adarsh said.

Not just Bollywood, Hollywood films will also suffer in the Indian market. Films like No Time to Die, Wonder Woman, a DC superhero production have been pushed forward. “Last year, Hollywood films which were released in India made approximately Rs 1,400 crore, in 2018, the amount was about Rs 1,000 crore and in 2017, it was some Rs 50 crore. This year, we haven’t had any major Hollywood release in the first quarter, and now the ones coming out have been pushed,” Mohan said.

It is “inappropriate to put a number in terms of quantum of loss” Rathi said, as one could not be sure of the “longevity of this (pandemic) or its geographical impact”. “It’s not absolute loss but delayed profits,” he said.

The trade analysts also expect that many films will make it to the web if the situation worsens. With just half a year left, many big releases will mark the Friday which will force the other films to make their way to the web rather than have a theatrical release.

Estimated cost of production

Baaghi 3 - Rs 70 crore
Angrezi Medium - Rs 35 crore
Sooryavanshi - Rs 125 crore
Gulabo Sitabo - Rs 35-45 crore
‘83 - Rs 100-115 crore
Ludo - Rs 25-30 crore
Gunjan Saxena - Rs 20-25 crore
Coolie No. 1 - Rs 45 crore
The Girl on the Train - Rs 20-25 crore
Shakuntala Devi - Rs 20-25 crore
Radhe - Rs 125 crore
Laxmi Bomb - Rs 90-110 crore

Predicted net collections * These are average estimates based on trade analysts’ projections

Baaaghi 3 - (it collected Rs 92 crore till March 13). Rs 120-130 crore
Angrezi Medium - (it collected Rs 8.5 crore till March 13). Rs 35-40 crore
Sooryavanshi - Rs 200-275 crore
Gulabi Sitabo - Rs 90 - 110 crore
‘83 - Rs 200-250 crore
Ludo - Rs 40 crore
Gunjan Saxena - Rs 45 crore
Coolie No. 1 - Rs 100 - 125 crore
The Girl on the Train - Rs 15-20 crore
Shakuntala Devi - Rs 25 - 35 crore
Radhe - Rs 150 - 220 crore
Laxxmi Bomb - Rs 150 - 170 crore

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