The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Rajasthan led by Vasundhara Raje may be in for a severe drubbing in the December assembly elections, and the opposition Congress may be heading towards a comfortable majority, a pre-poll survey conducted for India TV by CNX predicts.
In the 200-seat Rajasthan Assembly, Congress may win 110 to 120 seats, while the BJP may win 70 to 80 seats. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may win 1 to 3 seats, while 'Others' may win 7 to 9 seats, says the pre-poll survey.
Rajasthan Opinion Poll: Highlights
'Others' include Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal's Rashtriya Loktantra Party, Ghanshyam Tiwari's Bharat Vahini Party and Independents.
In the last assembly polls in Rajasthan in 2013, BJP had won 163, Congress had won 21, BSP had won 3 and Others had won 13 seats. Polling in Rajasthan will be held on December 7. The results will be announced on December 11.
Vote share
Vote share wise, Congress may get 43.5 per cent, BJP may get 40.37 per cent, BSP may get 2.58 per cent and 'Others' may get 13.55 per cent votes.
Assembly elections: Full Coverage
In the 2013 assembly polls, BJP had got 45.17 per cent and the Congress had got 33.07 per cent votes. This represents a -4.8 per cent downward swing in vote share for BJP and a huge 10.43 per cent upward swing for Congress, says the pre-poll survey.
IndiaTV-CNX Rajasthan Opinion Poll - Vote share of parties
Region-wise seat prediction
Region-wise breakup of projected seats: Hadouti (64) - Congress 35, BJP 25, BSP 1, Others 3. Marwad (56) - Congress 36, BJP 17, BSP 0, Others 3. Mewar(64) - Congress 36, BJP 27, BSP 0, Others 1. Shekhawati (16) - Congress 8, BJP 6, BSP 1, Others 1.
IndiaTV-CNX Rajasthan Opinion Poll
Performance of CM Vasundhara Raje
To the question how would you rate Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje's performance as CM, a huge 48 per cent respondents said Poor, 35 per cent said Good, 12 per cent said Average and 5 per cent said Can't Say.
IndiaTV-CNX Rajasthan Opinion Poll
WATCH: Congress likely to win Rajasthan Assembly elections, predicts IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll
Sachin Pilot emerges as best CM choice
In the pre-poll survey, 31.75 per cent respondents said they wanted Congress leader Sachin Pilot as Chief Minister, while 31 per cent favoured present incumbent Vasundhara Raje as Chief Minister. 15.56 per cent said they preferred Congress leader Ashok Gehlot as CM.
Nearly 32 per cent people want Congress leader Sachin Pilot to be the next CM of Rajasthan, IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll shows. (IndiaTV)
Unemployment biggest poll issue
Asked what will be the biggest issue in the coming assembly polls, 35 per cent said Unemployment, 27 per cent said Development, 15 per cent said Inflation, 10 per cent said Lynching, 6 per cent said SC/ST Act, and only one per cent said Rafale Deal.
On two important issues, 65.95 per cent respondents said they were dissatisfied with Vasundhara government's handling of Padmavat controversy, while 55.78 per cent said they were dissatisfied with the state government's handling on Gangster Anand Pal Singh's encounter.
IndiaTV-CNX Rajasthan Opinion Poll
Opinion poll: The process
The India TV-CNX pre-poll survey was conducted between October 16 and 29 on 8040 voters (4250 males and 3790 females) through a structured questionnaire.
The survey team visited 67 out of 200 assembly constituencies and the respondents were selected randomly keeping in view demographic, professional and migration dimensions. The results are subject to a margin of error of 2.5 per cent.
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